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Central asia in the period of political turbulence, new challenges, security issues

The article considers the problem of new geopolitical challenges in Central Asia at the present stage. The Central Asian region for a long time has a special place in world geopolitics, that is determined by its relevance to the main geopolitical players in the global arena. Today is an issue of political and military potential of the region. As far as they are ready to repel the threats that may stand in the near future for the region. This applies especially to the countries of the former Soviet Union, since exactly they today are experiencing a difficult period of social and socio-economic transformation, which in itself can cause processes affecting the interests of the major geopolitical players, as well as to destabilize the entire region. 

Current world situation is characterized by extreme volatility and unpredictability. In various parts of the world especially where there are marginal areas of the modern world order can be expected to aggravation of the situation with disruption to the complete instability and chaos.

One of these zones can be rightly regarded as the vast region of Central Asia, where over the centuries faced the interests of several major players in world politics. It was here at the time from the late 18th to mid-20th century, the events took place so-called "Great Game" between Russia and Great Britain. And it is here in our time, the interests of the face at least three permanent members of the UN Security Council of China, Russia and the United States. Of course, geopolitical interests are always imaginary and not imaginary, and always give a certain touch of artificiality and contrived doctrinaire. But at the same time do not take this in the modern world politics is hardly possible, as people defining their have enormous influence and resources working on the process of political decision-making. Thus it is necessary to take into account the situation in the region may change with lightning speed, as the region already has a hotbed of tension and open a long conflict in Afghanistan, to repay that for trying a long time, and sunk into oblivion Soviet Union and the entire military coalition led by the United States equipped with the most modern weapon.

Today, the countries of post-Soviet Central Asia, there are several threats to denote.

This is, firstly, the destabilization threat hidden within countries, as the political regimes in these countries formed in the wake of the collapse of the USSR and the third wave of democratization, a quarter of a century of development and has not reached the level of acceptable dynamic trajectory of their socio-economic and political development. They do not have a clear model of economic development. What it was largely connected with the process of the collapse of the world order and the lack of precedent for the modernization of post-Soviet states and their integration into the world market, as well as the peculiarities of elite formation processes in the post-Soviet states. Today in post-Soviet Central Asian countries have formed largely authoritarian regimes, it has absorbed all the contradictory experience of political management that has been preserved in the public consciousness and mentality of the population of the newly independent states of the region. (Generally authoritarian control system is common to all countries with the traditional system of social organization, from Western Sahara to Asia passed a difficult period of decolonization in the twentieth century. And to expect that it would be at least naive in them establish a Western-style democracy in a short time). Henry Kissinger in his book "Diplomacy" virtually led law regarding the potential for conflict in several regions, including the former Soviet Union: "…… In many other parts of the world the state preceded the nation; it was and often remains the main element of its formation. Political parties, where they exist, reflect the hard, usually communal unity; belonging to a minority or majority usually is permanent. In such societies, the political process is reduced to the question of dominance, and not to a change in power, which, if at all takes place, rather through unconstitutional coups. The concept of the loyal opposition - the essence of modern democracy - is rarely the case. More often, the opposition is seen as a threat to national unity, equates to treason and ruthlessly suppressed ……" [1].

This fully applies to the countries of post-Soviet Central Asia. And that is what carries the main threat to stability in the region. To this must be added the fact that almost all the political leaders of these countries are going through a time when the question will arise of legitimation and organization of the transfer of power to a new breed of politicians, which in itself is also not conducive to the political stability in the region.

Second, the real threat today, for these countries in the region is to destabilize the situation in Afghanistan, where the practice for 35 years and a stable political regime was not created capable of leading the country out of a state of permanent chaos and where the economic welfare of the country and the majority of the population is now firmly connected with the production and trafficking of drugs.

If we add to this the fact that over the past decade, Afghanistan has become a virtually permanent deployment of various radical groups generously fueled by regional and world powers that have real and perceived interests in the region and are constantly competing with each other for the possession of regional hegemony. At present, there is no guarantee that after the termination of the active phase of the civil war in Syria is that Afghanistan will become a hot spot, which will explode the entire region. If we add to this doctrine announced by the world's geo- political leaders, led by the United States with their desire to keep the status quo of world domination brings them enormous economic dividends. Already known facts transferring individual units LIH-Daishev in northern Afghanistan and joining them in a confrontation with the Taliban known to all. Of course, it would be naive to believe that there were no activities of special services of the States concerned. All of this suggests that the countries of post-Soviet Central Asia, with their unstable political regimes and civil radicalization caused by the deterioration of the socio-economic situation, facing a real threat to security.

If we talk about international conflicts, he is likely to only be a conflict between the major players within the region (for example, due to water transfer) as world and regional leaders in the person of China and Russia are more concerned about real danger in more significant to them regions today - Ukraine, the Caucasus and the Far East, than Central Asia with her operated political regimes and complete economic dependence. If to add to it that the military industrial capacity of the countries of the region is almost not comparable to the potential of the main players of world politics that to become clear that the military conflict between them is almost not possible. In any case, in the short term.

To this must be added the fact that almost all the political leaders of these countries are experiencing the moment when the question arises of their legitimation and organization of the transfer of power to a new breed of politicians, which in itself is also not conducive to the stabilization of the region.

In this regard, there is a need to determine what is the power the military potential of each of the states that would define how modern challenges affect both the overall stability of the region and its individual countries.

If we talk about the number of the armies of the region, it will hardly give an idea of the military potential of the individual countries of the region.

The most numerous army possesses today the Republic of Kazakhstan, the number of the army which, together with the troops of the Interior Ministry and the National Guard is - about 130-135 thousand (generally the number of Kazakh army is secret but we can assume that this figure is close to the truth). Kazakh army is represented by all branches of the military including the Army of modern special purpose troops and intelligence. Kazakhstan army today is the best equipped army in the region in its arsenal are the best examples of military equipment still Soviet period. As well as the latest examples of Russian military equipment. This tanks T - 80 T- 90, BTR -82A, anti-tank "Storm" system, the MiG-31 and Su-30, Su-34, 4+ generation, tactical missile defense systems S-300, Point-1-2 . Of course, these examples of military equipment have been developed mainly in the Soviet times, but at the same time, functional features, they still do not concede, and in many cases surpass foreign analogues. The basis of military regulations Kazakh army is the charter of the Soviet Union Army with the additions of the Charter of the USA and Turkey.

According to Global Firepower, available in Kazakhstan are 300 military tanks, 1.6 thousand armored vehicles, 744 artillery pieces, and 393 missile system. It is noted that the increase in the number of military aircraft in Kazakhstan over the past six months - up to 233 units. Among them are nearly 100 fighters and 84 helicopters (including 18 assaults) [2].

With a population of almost 18 million people in the defense of the country are ready to stand up 8.3 million citizens. In addition, Kazakhstan's army, according to the rating, has a budget of $ 2.4 billion. In addition, the volume of oil production in the country, according to the compilers of the rating, reaching 1.6 million barrels per day. In recent years, Kazakhstan improved its position in the Army of the updated world ranking, which was the organization of Global Firepower. The list contains 126 countries, Kazakhstan has risen from 80th to 66th place.

The second place in a rating of the countries of Post-Soviet Central Asia in not doubts is taken by army of the Republic of Uzbekistan whose number makes about 120 thousand people despite that population of Uzbekistan, surpasses the number of Kazakhstan almost in two. If to tell about equipment military equipment Uzbek armies, then she is lower, than the army of Kazakhstan also is presented generally by samples of military equipment of times of the USSR of the end-70 beginnings - 80 years. Among samples of military equipment it is possible to note such as Tanks of t-72, BTR-70, the MIG-23 planes, SU-25. SU-27, the helicopters Mi-8, Mi-24, Troops of air defense are presented by various systems which according to the characteristics are capable to strike aircraft of outdated systems. The number of units of military equipment many times is less than at Kazakhstan. The military budget of Uzbekistan is much lower than at Kazakhstan that, most likely, is defined by the place of Uzbekistan in common regional structure (a full environment neighboring states of the former Soviet Union) except border with Afghanistan for repulse of aggression from which the military capacity of Uzbekistan is quite adequate to territory, a possibility of economy [3].

The next in size and can be considered as the armed forces of the Republic of Tajikistan, which is determined primarily by the fact that it borders with Afghanistan, with the most problematic region in the whole of Central Asia on technical equipment. In the armed forces of Tajikistan about 10 thousand soldiers. Military equipment is presented as obsolete patterns of Soviet times. This tanks T-62, T-72 multiple rocket launchers Grad BM-21, MiG-21, MiG-23, Su-24, Mi-8, Mi-24. What is also determined by the reality of the threat of a breakthrough of militants from Afghanistan and the economic possibilities of the country. Of great importance for the security of the country plays a military base of the Russian armed forces, which housed 201 Division, has in its arsenal of the most advanced weapons to repel any aggression [4].

If we talk about the army of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, it should be noted that it is, as well as the army of neighboring Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, is small and has a mainly military equipment of Soviet manufacture. The total number of military personnel, including the National Guard, MIA subdivisions, Border Troops of the order of 25 thousand people. Military equipment is represented by T-72 tanks, multiple launch rocket systems Grad and Uragan, MiG-21, anti-tank weapons and MANPADS Igla type, Arena. Judging by the numerous special forces like "Scorpion", which are presented in each power department the main emphasis is on the prevention of local conflicts and counter separate militias that pose a real threat of destabilization of the situation in certain regions of Kyrgyzstan. On the territory of Kyrgyzstan in Kant is a Russian military base is provided primarily Air Force. Slightly higher on the technical equipment, but also can be considered a numerous army of Turkmenistan [5].

According to some information, national armed forces of the country total a little more than 50 thousand people. In land forces (26 thousand people) - 4 motorized rifle divisions (the 2nd educational motorized rifle, the 3, 11, 22 motorized rifle divisions, have three motorized rifle regiments, a tank regiment, an artillery regiment, an antiaircraft and artillery regiment), artillery crew and 2 crews of air defense; on arms - about 800 T-72 tanks, 27 operational and tactical rockets, 1.077 tools and mortars, 327 anti-tank means, not less than 1,7 thousand IFVs and the armored personnel carrier. In the Air Force (10.000 people) - 4 Aviation Regiment, on 24 fighters MiG-29 and an interceptor MiG-25, to 300 outdated bombers MiG-23 and 100 attack planes of SU-17 and SU-25, 21 helicopters. In Naval Forces - 400 people, 4 ships of hydrographic service and 5 fighting boats. About 18 thousand people serve in border troops, internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, ministry of national security and Service of bodyguard of the president [6].

If we talk about the military spirit that is no doubt today the determining factor in the combat capability of a modern army, it is high enough for all the armies of the newly independent states of the region. The officer corps is formed on the basis of national Soviet army personnel, some of whom have experience of participation in the Afghan war. Many of the modern generals and senior officers of the armies of these countries have experience of participation in the war in Afghanistan. The deep mark on the public consciousness of the peoples of the former Soviet Union left the events of the Second World War, in which only the total losses of the Soviet Union amounted to approximately 27 million people.

In proportion to population, many Central Asian nations have suffered great losses. Thus, the total loss in Kazakhstan during World War II amounted to about 620 thousand, with a population of 7 million people at the beginning of the war, that most of the losses of one of the main anti-Hitler coalition countries-USA, which in turn. There is no doubt reflected in the perception of war and aggression in the public consciousness of the population of these countries. All countries in the region the celebration of Victory Day is considered sacred in its history. In the countries of the region honor the memory of his countrymen - World War II veterans, which is reflected in the education of military valor among the young.

The experience of modern warfare is also available at the individual units of armies of these countries. So servicemen from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, have experience fighting on the Afghan-Tajik border in 90 years, to eliminate bandit groups of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) during the Batken events in Kyrgyzstan in 1998, participation in the peacekeeping operation in Iraq. After independence, all armies are formed on the basis of the general idea of the protection of their own homeland, its security against various threats, which undoubtedly reflects the spiritual state of the military armies of these states.

If we talk about the military-industrial complexes of these countries, it is practically not represented what a high-tech production allows structures to provide the army with modern equipment. arms market in the region by up to 90% provided by the Russian Federation. Whose military equipment more reflects needs of these countries at the price and quality. Separate samples of arms, thus, not the latest, are bought in the People's Republic of China, Turkey and the USA. In Kazakhstan military industrial complex is presented by the state holding "Kazinzhiniring" on balance which the Ural plant "Zenit" on release of military boats and a modern large-caliber machine gun, among joint projects on release of military equipment it is possible to note the RK and Republic of South Africa joint venture for the production of modern armored terrain in Astana.

It may be noted and the existing system of military training in each country in each individual function of higher military schools and academies, which prepare officers for all the armed forces. There is a system of higher military education in the leading military educational centers abroad. Many of the representatives of the officer corps of these countries were trained in US military institutions of higher education, Russia, Germany and the UK. The special relationship in the training of military personnel have developed in these countries, with the Russian Federation that are related to their interaction within a united army since Soviet times.

Thus, we can conclude that the military capabilities of all the armies of the newly independent states of Central Asia, is high enough and meets the threats to both internal and external, which are formed in the region over the past quarter of a century.

The armed forces of post-Soviet Central Asia went through a period of formation and for twenty-five years of independent development have created the necessary infrastructure for the modernization process of its own functionality.

For all the complexity and reality of external threats to destabilize the situation in post-Soviet Central Asia. The most likely is the threat of internal destabilization associated with the contradictions of social and socio- economic modernization.

All armies post-Soviet countries in one way or another have kept their dependence on the Russian Federation as the legal successor of the Soviet Union, and the main geopolitical player in the international arena, which is expressed primarily in providing military equipment and general geopolitical objectives.

In the armed forces of the newly independent states of Central Asia kept military traditions common history of the Soviet Union, which is part of the ideological basis of the military doctrine of the country.

The Russian Federation considers the military region of post-Soviet Central Asia as an important geopolitical region of the periphery and stores and is likely to strengthen its military presence for a long time.

 

  1. Генри Киссинджер Дипломатия. М.,1997 ISBN 5-86218-260-8 С.739
  2. Статья. Машинный парк казахстанской армии пополнился новой техникой Армия Казахстана | Казахстанское Военное Сообщество | Вооруженные Силы Республики Казахстан | Қазақстанның Қарулы Күштері | Казахстанский военный сайт. Проверено 11 января 2013
  3. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Вооружённые_силы_Узбекистана#, Справочник ЦРУ по странам мира. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uz.html
  4. http://www.easttime.ru/news/tadzhikistan/rossiiskaya-baza-v-tadzhikistane-budet-polnostyu-ukomplektovana-v-2014- godu/5087https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/201http://lenta.ru/news/2012/10/05/base/
  5. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki Вооруженные силы Республики Кыргызстан, http://www.welcome.kg/ru/kyrgyzstan/gov/poikl/
  6. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki Вооруженные силы Республики Туркменистан

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