The afghan exodus and the possible new conjoncture in the post-usa region

Abstract. Human history is not alien to the phenomenon of mass migration. Humans has been withnessing migration many times for ages. After the U.S announced that it will withdraw its troops from Afghanistan on August 31, a mass exodus of people from Afghanistan to other parts of the world began.

The expansionist foreign policy of the USA presented itself as a country which seeks to contribute to the development of Afghan society and its state, resorting to “democratization and the fight against global terrorism” rhetoric. The main reason behind the U.S’s entry into Afghanistan is to achieve its objective of gaining geostrategic advantages. The U.S, which uses radical salafi movements as a stepping stone, has recently tried to make a presence in Central Asia, in a region confined by China, Russia and Iran, and to show a sustainable presence in the region from Afghanistan where the Taliban is now in control. The main issue is centered on what will occur after the 31st of August, when the USA leaves Afghanistan, how the conjuncture will unfold in the region and how the Taliban regime will interact with Iran, Pakistan and China. Western societies tend to analyze and construe the Taliban over their approach to women. However, the accurate approach should be contributing to the formation of a non-marginal, legitimate political regime in Afghanistan, which will also be in accordance with international law. With the stability to be achieved in Afghanistan, a refugee crisis can be prevented.

Introduction

Human history has witnessed mass migrations many times. Although the reasons for migration change from time to time and case to case, wars, drought due to sudden changes in climate conditions, lack of food and ideological conflicts are the most common factors leading to the occurrence of mass migrations. Among these migrations, the migration of tribes is of significant importance because of its sociocultural effects on the ethnic and social structure of the modern world. This migration from the east part to the west part of the world has also been the trigger of many historical breaks. The Hun empire founded by Attila and the Mongol empires founded by Genghis Khan constitute an example of migrations that took place in the state-society unity that developed under the influence of the nomadic society structure of the steppe political culture.

Similar mass migrations have also occurred in the history of the Middle East. As explained in the Torah, the holy book of the Jewish faith, the exit of the Israelites from Egypt long before the migration of the tribes is a good example of mass migration. The reason for this mass exodus known as "Exit from Egypt" or known as "Exodus." This event is explained and read in the second book of the Torah, "Exodus". The Israelites living in the country of Pharaoh were detained by Pharaoh, who seeked to use their labour in Egypt. Moses and Aaron, had requested Pharaoh to let free the Israelites under his captivity. This request is rejected by Pharaoh. As it is told in the Torah, Moses ensured the transfer of his people to the land of Canaan, thanks to the path he opened by striking his staff in the Red Sea. The mystical struggle of Moses against Pharaoh towards freeing the Israelites of Pharaoh's captivity also formed a philosophical basis for the Jewish community and Jewish faith. For this reason, the Jewish community formed its own cults on the basis of their own beliefs, and did not seek other cults. Moses' mystical and extraordinary abilities filled this gap[1]. Customs such as Passover and the Passover Sacrifice were formed by the legend of the Exodus[2]. Of course, we know that such events took place in the mystical periods of history. In today’s world, it can be easily said that no one can easily believed that human beings could experience mass migrations in view of current advancements in every field. However, mass migrations did not end in the modern world. In the era of technology and science, we witness mass migrations emanating from war, climate change and ideological reasons. Venezuela’s case can be analysed to elaborate it more. Venezuela's exposure to U.S. embargoes after the nationalization of the country's oil resource and the immigration of Venezuela’s citizens to Panama as a consequence, have also an important place in the modern era mass migrations. In addition, we know that there are South-North migrations on a regular basis from the African continent to Europe for very different reasons. However, the most important one in modern period migrations will be Afghanistan Exodus. After the U.S announced that it will withdraw its troops from Afghanistan on August 31, a mass exodus of people from Afghanistan to other parts of the world began. Afghans, who claim that they will lose their lives and be persecuted under the Taliban, are leaving the country by whatever means they find. Although the United States of America assumes the role of “Musa of the Afghan people”, we cannot say that it has been successful.

The only thing America has done so far, which has been in Afghanistan for twenty years, is to transfer Afghan refugees to other countries, especially to neighboring countries, or to take very few of them to their own country. The Biden administration seeks that countries such as Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan accept Afghan refugees[3]. Besides, the Taliban strongly opposes the country's human resources to leave its borders. Many Afghans are waiting for the planes that will come to pick them up at Kabul Airport, where they remain under ill conditions. During their wait, more than 180 people lost their lives in the explosions and suicide bombings at the airport. Afghans trying to leave the country under these conditions are on the agenda of the world public opinion. On the other hand, the U.S, which is seen by Afghans as Musa, is negotiating with the Taliban, whom they see as Pharaoh, to evacuate Afghanistan. CIA Director William Burns even had a meeting with Taliban Leader[4]. As a result, refugees are fleeing, en masse or disorderly, from Afghanistan – the land of wars and the tomb of empires, - towards western countries through airway and roads. Afghans seeking to reach Europe via Iran and Turkey are trying to cross a distance of thousands of kilometers on foot. While the general situation in Afghanistan can be explained as such, the main issue is centered on what will happen after the 31st of August, when the USA leaves Afghanistan, and how the conjuncture will be in the region.

Research Methods

The primary purpose of this article is to evaluate the withdrawal of the U.S. from Afghanistan, which is a very important issue in today's international relations, from a historical andsymmetrical point of view with a retrospective approach. In this study some predictions about the possible occurances in the region which would bring about a new conjuncture after the U.S. decision to withdraw are given in the article. However, while doing these, examples of the modern-era political history from the past were analysed, and the period from the U.S invasion of Afghanistan to today was tried to be explained within the cause and effect methodology, with a special reference to the hidden parts of the US foreign policy concerning the U.S. global goals.

Reality of War and Refugee Problem in Afghanistan

The war is a transition from a diplomatic dimension in which all socio-economic, political and military relations are tied to a mutual dialogue to an armed dimension. The disagreement between an individual and another individual or state with another state creates conflict and violence[5]. Violence manifests itself as an armed conflict and war. However, the factors leading to a war are very different in nature. War can break out due to reasons such as arms race, territorial and border disputes, loss of balance between countries and creating zones of Exploitation [6]. These factors apply to the entire world. Despite being a landlocked country and sitting on a difficult geography, Afghanistan has been a regular war zone throughout history. Here, it should be stated that the geostrategic position of the country is of great importance. 19-20. Geostrategy, as a concept, has been an important element in the field of international relation in 19th and 20th centuries. Therefore, Afghanistan and its geography gained an importance for countries in a geo-strategic sense.

Geography is very important both as a factor in the formation of war and because of its effect on the war. Some countries or regions turn into a constant conflict zone or buffer zone for the geostrategic interests of global powers. In this respect, Afghanistan, as the most strategic country of the last century, has been exposed to invasions and has been the field of feuding with each and struggle for the superpowers that could not directly confront on ground.

The reasons that put Afghanistan at danger throughout the last century are clear and can be summarized as: being a transit country between Central Asia and South Asia, sitting on the historical silk road, locating just north of the traditional British colonial areas as well as sitting on the containment project carried out by the West against Soviets.

. In addition, Afghanistan, which the Soviet Union occupied to land in the Indian Ocean in order to strike a blow to the Petro-dollar economy, which the West saw as a source of income, at the same time, the British in the 19th century. In the 19th century, it was the transit country they used to go to inner Asia. All these factors put Afghanistan and the country's geostrategy at the center of the strategies of the countries with global power.

Of course, the last empire to enter Afghanistan was the United States of America. Here, it is necessary to go a little off topic and clarify something. Although the expansionist foreign policy of the USA, carried out with the slogan of democratization and the fight against global terrorism, has developed discourses such as contributing to the development of Afghan society and state, the main reason behind the U.S. entry into Afghanistan is its effort to gain geostrategic advantages[7]. The U.S foreign policy aimed to both make Afghanistan a part of the global system and use it as a satellite state for its objectives in the region. On the other hand, the USA, which uses radical Safavi movements as a stepping-stone, has recently tried to settle in Central Asia, in a region confined by China, Russia and Iran, and to show a sustainable presence in the region from there.

In fact, all these aims were nothing but the continuation of the old traditions and habits of the U.S foreign policy with new methods. If we need to evaluate the issue from this perspective; In the great battle of the two expansionist ideologies in the post-second world war period -democratization and Sovietization- the West prevailed over. The battle between NATO, headed by the U.S, and the Warsaw pact, headed by the Soviet Union, ended with a victory for NATO.

The process resulted in the withdrawal of the Soviet Union, which entered Afghanistan in 1979, getting bogged down here in 1988. Already experiencing systemic problems, the Soviet Union could not get what it wanted from Afghanistan and got into the process of disintegration. But the important thing here was that the US-backed mujahideen defeated the Soviet empire, which was stuck in the Afghan swamp. The U.S. successfully used the perception of a totalitarian Soviet regime in the Western world, and a non-religious or atheist Soviet regime in Islamic geographies, and formed a global organization against the Soviets. Particularly, the mobilization of the Muslim world against the Soviets, which banned religions and beliefs, was much more effective in the political, military and economic fields. One consequence of this was the mujahideen defeating the Soviets.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia was an integral part of the system, both hosting the holy center of Islam, the Kaaba, and supporting the Petro-dollar economy in the history of the cold war for the United States. Saudi Arabia played a major role in financing organizations under the control of the United States. After the Cold War, a new conjuncture and a new World has emerged. In view of this situation, the future of the new world and how it should unfold became a very important issue. Since "democratization" came out as a winner in the Cold War, the spread of democratic regimes all over the world should have continued. Democratization was much more beneficial and useful, in line with the interests of the foreign policy of the American empire. For this reason, American foreign policy pressed the button for the transfer of democracy with the slogan of "democratization". However, the slogan of democratization is expected to bring with it American expansionism in theory.

In order for this to be successful, regimes in the countries that put a restrain on the U.S foreign policy, especially in regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, had to be dissolved. For the dissolution of these regimes, a series of democratization movements that had a domino effect should be implemented and regimes compatible with American foreign policy should have had to come to power. In fact, the velvet revolution that started in the Eastern Europe were tried to be continued in the form of the disintegration of Yugoslavia in Eastern Europe, the orange revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia, and the Arab Spring that started in Tunisia[8]. In this respect, Iraq and Afghanistan played a key role in their success. Especially Afghanistan was important as an important stepping stone to enter inner side of Asia. However, it was theoretically and practically impossible to enter countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq through democratic means or democracy.

The attack on the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001 gave American foreign policy makers a chance to enter regions in which the U.S seeks to play a part or so the chance was created. While the perpetrators of the September 11 attacks were found in Afghanistan, chemical weapons were also found in Iraq!!! Along with this, great social and social events took place in all of North Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe and Afghanistan.

While there were orange revolutions in the post-Soviet geography, there were also armed conflicts in regions in different forms such as the Arab Spring from North Africa to Iran, and Iraq and Afghanistan. The countries of these geographies still have not achieved a stable society structure. The post-Cold War world did not find the stability it was looking for. On the other hand, a new mission was also needed for NATO, whose reason for existence suddenly changed shape after the collapse of the Soviet Union. A global mission for NATO was sought for 8 years between the 1991 Rome and the 1999 Washington summit[9]. By accepting the new strategic concept at the Washington summit; a new field of activity has been determined, covering global political, social, economic issues, environmental problems, conflict and migration areas. However, the concept of “cooperation in trust” was accepted at the 2010 Lisbon summit [10].

NATO would also be able to fight against global terrorism in many different parts of the world. Afghanistan was chosen as the center and target country of the global fight against terrorism. Immediately after 9/11, the U.S Afghanistan operation plan was put into practice. The second Gulf War started in 2003, while the American army entered Afghanistan in 2001. At the point reached today, the organization that the U.S claims that [it] is fighting in Afghanistan is now establishing a state called the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. On the other hand, it was revealed that there were no chemical weapons in Iraq at all. As a result, at the end of all this; painful wars and great destructions took place in regions such as a burned and devastated Afghanistan, the Middle East, and North Africa, which has yet to find stability. The stories of millions of deaths, refugees and dramatic survival were once again written in the ancient history of the Middle East.

Afghans have paid and still are paying the highest price for the endless wars in their home country. Afghanistan's geostrategic position and geographical importance have matched the country's fate with the war. As we mentioned above, Afghans, who had to leave their homeland and live in other countries, are paying the heavy price of the U.S seeing Afghanistan as a very important stepping stone for the global strategies of non-regional actors. In this regard, Afghanistan is one of the countries that regularly produces the most refugees in the world. These migrations take place both within the country and out of the country. According to the UN refugee organization, more than 6 million Afghans became refugees in the 9 years after the Soviet occupation[11]. Although the withdrawal of the Soviets from Afghanistan is a hope for the return of the refugees to their countries, the civil war periods and occupations that started in the country have continued until today. The first of these wars lasted until 1992 between the Soviet-backed Najibullah and the mujahideen[12]. While some refugees returned after the withdrawal of the Soviets, new refugee waves were created with this civil war. After this war, another civil war broke out between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance. This situation has a direct effect on the formation of new refugees. Afghans, who thought that everything would develop in a good way after the entry of the United States into Afghanistan subsequent to the events of September 11, unfortunately became the victim of a new but unending war in this sense. At first, there was a polarization in Afghan society, limited to its boundries, in the form against the United States. However, the endless wars in the country led to the destabilization of the socio-economic life, and as a result, many Afghans had to leave their families behind and go to other countries to work. On the other hand, the unlawfulness and inhumane approaches occured in the country due to the war further accelerated the escape from Afghanistan. Finally, a new wave of Afghan refugees began to emerge after the United States announced that it will withdraw from the region. Afghans, who have been collaborating with America for years and are a part of America's train-equip system, are now leaving the country. Now, what will happen in Afghanistan from now on is a very important issue on the agenda of the world public opinion.

Possible Developments in the Region After 31 August

The withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan will bring about a new conjuncture in the region. The primary issue here is that the United States was forced to withdraw its troops as the last empire to lose a war in Afghanistan. President Trump was the first to take the decision to withdraw. The American empire faced a great defeat in Afghanistan and it did not yield any results except the murder of Osama Ben Laden in its war started in George Bush’s Presidency term and ended in Biden Adminastration period. While President Trump sees this as a necessity of American domestic political life, he also openly declared that staying in Afghanistan does not contribute to American society[13].

The questions "why are we in Afghanistan, for whom are we fighting and for what reason are American soldiers dying" are frequently on the agenda in the U.S domestic public opinion. These questions have raised eyebrows in public against the U.S foreign policy approach, which is defined as an endless war, questioned[14]. America lost this war, in which it spent more than $2 trillion,and in which resulted the death tool of nearly 2,500 American soldiers. [15]. In the U.S defeat, the United States has made the distribution of foreign political power far above its own means and in an unbalanced manner. On the other hand, the fact that countries such as Russia, China, Iran and Turkey defended their area in the regional sense and provided resistance against American expansion has weakened the already unbalanced power distribution. Presumably, the pressure of the American public will also apply to other military units in the Middle East.

The Soviet Union's withdrawal from Afghanistan was not only limited to Afghanistan, it had to withdraw from all of Central Asia in 1991. In this sense, the U.S withdrawal from the region will not be limited to Afghanistan in the near future, and it is likely to withdraw from the Middle East as well. This war has shown once again that it is not possible for non- regional actors to stay in the region and rule Afghanistan, no matter how advanced military technology they have. Afghanistan refused to become an American satellite. It doesn't matter who does it for now.

Russia and China, which do not want to let America get into inner Asia, have a great influence on the loss of this war by the USA. Although it cannot be proven with a concrete evidence, the roles have changed in the Afghan war, and Russia's covert support against the U.S in the region have been felt within Afganistan. This time it was Russia that was on the side of the mujahideen. After that, it is likely to expect an increase in Russia's influence over the region [16]. However, Russia's priority in Afghanistan is to prevent the U.S regime from entering inner Asia, in intellectuall, ideological and armed sense. For this, Russia is increasing its cooperation with the countries of the Soviet geography bordering Afghanistan.

The second issue is whether the Taliban can establish a stable regime in Afghanistan and how it will govern the country if it does. The Taliban ruled almost the entire country until 2001. The Taliban, which the world public opinion often harshly criticizes in terms of its understanding of governance for the society, initially gives moderate messages in order to gain legitimacy. The U.S also made his first contacts, which can be considered under the umbrella of diplomacy, by meeting with countries such as Russia, Iran, China, Germany and Turkey. In particular, the U.S made commitments to Russia that radical Salafi organizations would not enter the inner side of Asia. In this sense, it is clear that as a new regime, it has made an effort to ensure its recognition in the international arena.

The new regime to be established in Afghanistan is likely to be recognized by other countries in the near future. the Taliban regime declared jihad against foreign powers in the post- 2001 period and fought within the framework of Shari'a provisions and won this war. As a result, it established dominance in Afghanistan as a first step and changed the name of the country to “the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan”.

As it is known, many radical Salafist organizations used the name Emirate in their region. The religious and political leader of the Taliban, Hibadullah Akhunzade, uses the title of Emirül Müminin, that is, the leader of the believers, the commander. This title generally refers to the Islamic caliph “Hz.” It was used for Umar and the caliphs who came after him. From this point of view, it would not be wrong to say that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has a political-religious mission that has not yet been clearly stated, such as being a leader in the entire Islamic world.

The Taliban regime may be the first Islamic state to be established by “its own claim", in real terms, bounded by Islamic law. Although Saudi Arabia or other Muslim states in the Middle East accept the sharia rules, they do not act like this in practice. In this case, the regime becomes very important for the future of Afghanistan and the region. In this respect, it is extremely important how the Islamic world and Muslim countries will view the Taliban regime from a religious perspective. Moreover, there have been dozens of Emirs established by Salafist organizations in the Islamic geography and Emirs who have assumed the role of Caliphs. One of them is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who once declared himself the caliph of the Islamic State of Iraq and Damascus[17]. There are organizations that use the title of emirate in many regions of the world such as Turkistan İslam Emirate (Turkistan Islamic Party), Khorasan Emirate and El- Kaide Yemen Emirate [18].

It is highly probable that the Taliban is the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the superstructure of all these emirates. If these organizations declare their loyalty to the new state and regime to be established in Afghanistan, Afghanistan, that is, the Taliban, will have an unofficial ideological and armed organization in many parts of the world at the time. In other words, it can take other organizations struggling like itself under its protection. Moreover, it would be extremely absurd for him to reject such a structure in terms of his own ideology. In line with the developments in this direction, it would not be wrong to say that the radical Salafist movements now have a state. Because even now, the source of nourishment for the Salafist organizations that are active in all of Central Asia was Afghanistan. In this case, the question of whether Salafist expansionism will now be subordinate to the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan or whether the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will now transform these local emirates into its own foreign power is a very important issue to be considered.

The third issue is how the Taliban regime will interract with Iran, Pakistan and China. First of all, the U.S abandonment of the region was the most ideal conjuncture for Iran to make a presence in the region. However, as the U.S. withdraws, it leaves an Afghanistan which is under the influence of Sunni Islam, and it is a really important issue how the Taliban will have a relationship with Iran, which is dominated by Shiite Islam. Moreover, the fact that the U.S. leaving the region which is the common interest of many countries prevents a negative atmosphere in intra-regional relations. However, it is unlikely that relations will remain same over time. Sectarian approaches will establish the basis of relations between Afghanistan, one of the traditional fields of Sunni Islam, and Iran, the center of Shiite Islam. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards do not want to see Sunni immigrants on Iranian soil either. However, Iran will want to show presence in Afghanistan no matter what. In this sense, it will ensure the existence of its affiliated organizations.

There are two important developments in Afghanistan on the side of Pakistan. The first of these is the possibility of the end of the existence of organizations that cause destabilization of neighboring countries in Afghanistan. Pakistan, which has been regularly attacked by different Salafist organizations during the Afghan war years, seeks its internal stability in the stability of Afghanistan. Pakistan, which has an active cooperation in the field of foreign trade with the People's Republic of China, thinks that the developments in Afghanistan will contribute to this cooperation. The fact that it has an influence over the Taliban, albeit partially, gives Pakistan an upper-hand in this sense, but the possible influx of immigrants after the withdrawal of the U.S. makes Pakistan uneasy.

The fourth important issue was the regular invasion of the lands of the Southern countries by the northern countries in the North-South relationship for centuries. If the Taliban can establish a hegemonic regime throughout the country in Afghanistan, ideological expansionism may develop from the south to the north. Moreover, many countries, especially Russia, are uneasy about the influx of refugees from the south and ideological expansionist movements. The invisibility of intellectual expansionism as an ideological concept or its visibility after it has gained influence in a particular society also makes it difficult to fight against ideological expansionist organizations. In this case, Salafist ideas spread from south to north. Speaking specifically about Afghanistan; If such a thing happens, Central Asian countries will almost act as a green corridor as a transition or corridor. In this case, the increasing importance of Central Asian countries due to capital and production movements from west to east will become even more important with possible ideological transfers from south to north. This situation will cause many negative effects in societies whose socio-economic structure is not healthy.

The fifth important issue is Afghanistan's approach towards participation or opposition to the "one belt, one road project". As a matter of fact, Afghanistan is not an indispensable country for this project. However, this is one of the factors that will play a decisive role in the Taliban regime’s relations with China. We know the steps taken by the U.S., which knows the advantages that the one-generation road project will provide to China in its global commercial competition, to prevent this project. In this respect, it is a matter of great curiosity what the approach of the Taliban will be towards this project. It is obvious that the Taliban regime in Afghanistan controls the customs and needs the income to be obtained from there. In this sense, a generation will want to get a share from a road project. Of course, the extent to which the People's Republic of China will make Afghanistan a stakeholder is a separate issue. Because the People's Republic of China clearly knows that the regime strengthened on religious foundations in Afghanistan is diametrically opposed to its own social dynamics in theory and practice. On the other hand, there are areas in the People's Republic of China that could be the ideological expansion area of the Taliban in ethnic and religious terms. In this case, it is obvious that China will approach the regime in Afghanistan in a pragmatic but balanced way and will support the Taliban as much as it can control it. At least, we understand this from the talks China has had with the Taliban regime for many years[19].

The sixth important issue is the future of the narcotic trade, which has been in the first place in the economic income sources of the Taliban for many years, will be an important issue, and in the new conjuncture, this will be on the agenda of the world public opinion[19]. In this sense, Western countries are already trying to put pressure on the Taliban regime. Even if the Taliban approaches positively these requests made by the Westerners, they will demand an alternative financial resource. In this respect, the narcotic trade will remain as a tool of foreign political pressure in the hands of the Taliban. Or Western countries will have to finance the Taliban regime, in which case they will be subjected to great pressure from their own public opinion.

Finally, important issue is that Afghan mass migration is no longer only a problem of Afghanistan and neighboring countries, but also a problem of Europe. In fact, until the last refugee influx, Afghan migrations were mostly shaped by ethnic and religious sects. Pakistan, which implements an open door policy, and Iran, which took Shiite Afghans to their country, were most affected by these refugee influxes. However, in the period after August 31, both countries strictly opposed the arrival of Afghan immigrants to their countries with their previous experiences. China, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan do not accept refugees to their countries anyway. On the other hand, the USA has a demand to accept 9 thousand refugees each from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In particular, the refugee approach developed by Russia based on the former Soviet borders plays an important role here. However, this time the Afghan migration takes place for a very different purpose. Afghan refugees are now migrating to leave their home country entirely. For this reason, the goal of refugees is not to temporarily seek refuge in neighboring countries, but to never return to Afghanistan. In this respect, most of the Afghans, who became refugees, set out to go to European countries or the U.S instead of the camps established in Pakistan and Iran. Refugees are trying to reach Europe via Iran and Turkey, or at worst they are trying to stay in Turkey. Endless wars and incessant lawlessness have caused Afghans to finally lose hope for the future of their country. Because even the world's superpower, the U.S, could not bring the democracy as it promised and lost the war it waged against the Taliban. In the face of a period in which even America could not succeed, the only thing to do was to leave Afghanistan forever at all costs.

Conclusion

As a result, Afghans now have neither a Moses nor a staff. The U.S withdrawal from Afghanistan will not bring happiness to Afghans in other countries, nor will it help them to create their own mystical history. For now it seems that; Afghan society has fallen victim to a grand global strategy. On the other hand, it is a vicious foreign policy approach that Western societies analyse the developments in Afghanistan over the Taliban's approach to women. In this sense, Western countries still act with the comfort of the fact that regions that are at risk of conflict and war are far from their borders. This comfort is until the Afghan immigration reaches the European border and it is limited. The right point of view is to contribute to the formation of a non-marginal, legitimate political regime in Afghanistan, which is in accordance with international law accepted by the whole world, especially in the countries of the region, no matter what ideological basis it develops. The government and state administration to be established in Afghanistan will ensure that the country has opened its diplomatic channels for an enhanced communication. In this way, the possible stability in Afghanistan will be felt in the region. Moreover, the establishment of an interlocutor government, regardless of which regime is governed in Afghanistan, will ensure that Afghanistan is subject to a regime that complies with international law. Of course, it is absolutely important that the Taliban regime also seeks this.

 

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  16. Timeline: the Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State [Electronic resource]: Wilsoncenter.org, 2021. URL: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the- rise-spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state (access date: 04.09.2021).
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  18. ‘Hedging their bets’: Political experts weigh in on China’s growing relations with the Taliban [Electronic resource]: Cnbc.com, 2021. URL: https://www.cnbc. com/2021/08/23/china-and-taliban-relations-with-afghanistan-are-tricky-analysts- say.html (access date: 04.09.2021).
  19. Drugs, security, and counternarcotics policies in Afghanistan, [Electronic resource]: Brookings.edu, 2021. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/drugs-security- and-counternarcotics-policies-in-afghanistan/ (access date: 04.09.2021).
Year: 2021
City: Almaty