Abstract. The article analyzes a process of Great Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. According to the author, negotiations on Great Britain’s exit from the EU, which allegedly begin this fall, will proceed in a civilized way. The term of consideration on an exit from the EU will take about two years in case of favorable circumstances, otherwise the result is unknown.
Necessity of the Britain’s withdrawal from the EU is very disputable proceeding from the results of the vote. The author considers that Great Britain can refuse the final scenario at any time. Having uncontrolled freedom of action, initiative and even strategic initiative in politics and at the same time keeping all the positive factors of partnership with the European Union would be the best option for the United Kingdom in their foreign policy. It is a functional political, economic and legal complication that United Kingdom by virtue of its capacity to fulfill.
Negotiations on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union allegedly plan to begin in the fall of 2016. Divorce shall proceed in a civilized way. Consideration of an issue on withdrawal from the EU will take about two years in case of successful combination of circumstances, otherwise the result is unknown. Necessity of UK withdrawal from the EU is very disputable proceeding from the vote results. Overweight of those who voted for an exit from the Union was minimum – 2%. Is withdrawal from the Union necessary considering the quantity of unsatisfied citizens if we only operate with the vote results? The Great Britain is likely to refuse the final scenario at any time. However if we trust the results of the referendum and believe that ordinary citizens have really decided the fate of the membership in the EU, so among the reasons which induced them to make it there are inefficiency of the European union’s Brussel establishment, and unwillingness of the population in the developed European countries to pay out their misses and mistakes [1, 2].
Nevertheless, so far the EU has not faced practice of an exit from the Union. As the organization applying for perfection it shall master a possible exit of any state from this consolidation. Perhaps, the income from it can exceed losses in case of the civilized exit implying preserving a mutual assent, mutual assistance and possibility of the repeated entry into the European Union.
What prerequisites and reasons are necessary for this purpose??? It is probable that the policy of certain EU member states can be extremely individual (and it really is), the states can face various challenges in the domestic and foreign policy in various time – so they need to have an opportunity to pursue the independent policy, independent from the Union. Anyway the return mechanism shall really exist. The exit shall be real, effective and rather fast. This factor can further be both indicative and necessary for member countries.
The Great Britain always insisted on "special status" in the Union among all EU Member States. It is impossible to forget and it is impossible to underestimate that the Great Britain itself is the center of the Commonwealth  with 2,245 billion people of the population, including 53 countries and undoubtedly has its strategic sovereign and allied objectives.
Proceeding from alleged intention of the Great Britain’s establishment to exit the European Union – it is possible to speak about availability of the strategic plan on this matter. It is known that an exit of a country after notification on an exit is performed two years later, according to the Treaty of Lisbon. The exit of the Great Britain from the Union was always considered as possible and the plan for this case was quite possibly ready. In universal scale - the European Union is a calque for all interstate unions. The exit of such country as Great Britain from the EU is a sign and possibly is extremely necessary for forming a steady opinion on possibility for a civilized exit from any consolidation.
The scheme of an exit from the EU is performed according to the Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. Two special ministries were created for an exit from the EU in Great Britain. The minister on Brexit David Davies has allegedly announced the term of a formal exit from the EU - December, 2018. This question is one of the most actual at the moment – how a process of negotiations and an exit from the EU can be held, what purposes the British government and the EU leaders can have.
The scheme of an exit and issues on negotiation process of the Great Britain and EU27 were provided in August in analytical article of Dr. Robin Niblett, the director of Chatham House, Preparing for the UK’s Brexit Negotiation. It demonstrates a vision of the process of an exit and negotiations on this question .
The Brexit model (an exit of the Great Britain) issues can be a subject of negotiations with the EU. Supporters of an exit require the fastest solution of the issues - for determination of their institutional status and resolution of the problem.
The issues for negotiations between the Great Britain and the EU are mainly the issues of a free trade mode. Also among the subjects for discussion and solution in the course of negotiations there are the EU and the Great Britain citizens’ rights, closing of expenditure obligations in the EU budget, transfer of regulation functions from the EU agencies which play a role in the Great Britain in the domestic legislation – the European Medical Agency, to the British partners, recreation of the contracts constituted according to the EU legislation, creation of new arrangements for the Great Britain’s access to United European Air Space and the domestic energy market of the EU, the liability status of the ecological purposes of the Great Britain to the UN performed through the EU legislation, the sanction concerning Russia, adaptation of cross-border security measures including continuation of mutual access to database, right of fishery trade in the Great Britain and the EU for fishermen, creation of protection in a transition period on immigration from the EU to the Great Britain and citizenship of the Great Britain.
Following of the Article 50 provides consideration of new agreements of the exiting state with the EU that is a smooth exit of the Great Britain which is supported by its main partners – the Netherlands and Germany.
The new framework agreement between the EU and the Great Britain, perhaps, shall have the following items:
- The legislation of the EU has no superiority over the British law anymore;
- Capability of parliament to introduce control over labor power movement from the EU and to make decision on future payments in the EU;
- Freedom to conclude own trade deals for Great Britain.
While the question of membership in the European economic zone (EEA – the Norwegian option) can be solved rather quickly (though it will demand from Great Britain to join European Free Trade Association at the beginning) and will continue to grant Britain with full unrestricted access to a single commodity and service market...
Elements of a new agreement on free trade and investments:
- Customs regulation.
- Financial services.
- Movement of people and workers.
- Financing of the European educational, scientific programs, funds of the EU regional support.
Preserving of a freedom of action is a benefit, deduction of a strategic initiative . The Great Britain historically, since modern times, has been the advanced power, nowadays, possessing nuclear potential. The Great Britain is the obvious leader in the relations with the countries of the European Union at the moment, as politically and economically, so in questions of possible armed forces application. Perhaps, it has big political strategic talent in the relations with the USA being the partner with the smaller military and economic potential. During this period of time membership in the European Union in case of all pluses has enough minuses. The best option would be to possess a complete freedom of actions, initiative and even a strategic initiative in policy and at the same time to preserve all positive factors of partnership with the European Union. It is functional political, economic and legal complication which the
Great Britain owing to its potential is able to execute. It is undoubted that for all EU countries it will be enhancement, as well as for the EU institute itself.
The Great Britain’s desire to gain mobility, initiative in all spheres – foreign policy, economy, armed forces, etc. was probably dictated by a bright example of the Russian Federation’s policy, which possesses the freedom of actions, not encumbered with excessive allied contractual commitments, perhaps by the United States of America as well.
The western press in its view of an exit from the EU expresses opinion on strong isolation of England . Nevertheless, this isolation is not unusual for The Great Britain. Possibly, it is peculiar "turn overstag" of English policy - "Splendid isolation" - English political doctrine .
The policy of "Splendid isolation" was based on the fact that England as the largest industrial country, a great colonial power, possessing the huge naval fleet, was able to afford from time to time some luxury of nonparticipation in the fixed unions and the coalitions and to hold keys of "the European balance" in its hands. During an imperialism era the balance of power has changed to England’s disadvantage. Its economic and strategic positions weakened as it came to light during the Boer war, and threatened to turn into forced isolation. Nowadays concerning the USA, the Great Britain, probably, wishing to preserve "the special relations" nevertheless prefers the extremely independent and sovereign policy from the USA in Eurasia and Asia-Pacific . The Great Britain’s exit from the European Union also promotes a distance of many positions in foreign policy of the European Union and the USA.
The Great Britain is one of the leading states in armed forces of the EU, the main investor in defense of the EU, the second investor in NATO, the main state in the EU capable to use the armed force. After an exit from the EU, all financial and military efforts of the country will be concentrated on the sovereign purposes and the North Atlantic Alliance. The integrated armed forces of the EU will be extremely weakened.
The European Union in respect of defense represents insufficiently organized, not united, not mobile structure. It is impossible to forget that possibility of military force implementation by the state is still one of sovereignty indicators.
Possibly, and, according to many experts, the Great Britain will face difficulties in economy - investments, employment of the population, the industry, bank and financial communications and other spheres. However, it is possible that the reasons of the Great Britain’s exit lie in a difference between continental approach and Anglo-American one. The thesis that the Great Britain’s exit weakens only the EU is unconvincing though England is one of the largest economies of the world which aren't depending on investments. Perhaps, the British should not finance weak EU countries or unprofitable projects, supranational institutes and government of the EU. Perhaps, competitiveness will increase. But it is probable that this English foreign policy and economic maneuver can enhance legal, economic and political system of as the Great Britain, so the EU.
- Brexit is a consequence of Brussels’s arrogance, 24.06.2016. http://www. rp.pl/Blogi/306249964-Brexit-wynikiem-arogancji-Brukseli.html
- Klaus: the British have escaped from “Brussels monster”, 24.06.2016.
- The Commonwelth. - http://thecommonwealth.org/
- Preparing For the UK’s Brexit Negotiations, August, 2016. https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/preparing-uks-brexit-negotiation
- The STRATEGIC INITIAIVE is the possibility created by a complex of actions and measures to impose the opponent in strategic scale for a long time, to force him to apply unprofitable methods and forms of combat, to work in adverse conditions. It creates freedom of decision making, a choice of actions for their troops (fleet forces) and limits actions of the opponent’s forces. http://voina-i-mir. ru/article/234
- New British Foreign Policy, 4.07.2016, - http://universe-tss.su/main/ politika/39430-terri-meysan-novaya-vneshnyaya-politika-velikobritanii.html
- "SPLENDID ISOLATION" is an English diplomatic doctrine characterized by a reluctance to enter into permanent alliance or commitment with the other great powers, with preserving of full freedom of action until the moment upcoming danger may demand an alliance or commitment with the other great powers. The authorship of this expression is attributed to various persons. However its popularity was gained after Salisbury used it in his speech during a traditional banquet of the lord-mayor of the London City. Concerning positions of Austria and Russia on the Armenian issue, Salisbury objected to condemnation of Russia and Austria for their refusal to support the attack against Turks offered by England. Salisbury thus specified that any catastrophic crash in Southeast Europe was the greatest danger to vital interests and even to existence of Russia and Austria, and therefore it is wrong "to expect from them the same emotional and philanthropic relation with what the English people in their splendid isolation can weigh all the circumstances". By saying “splendid isolation” Salisbury meant island privacy of England; but the public interpreted this expression politically, having given it the sense stated above. http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/dic_diplomatic/214/%D0% 91%D0%9B%D0%95%D0%A1%D0%A2%D0%AF%D0%A9%D0%90%D0% AF
- New British Foreign Policy, 4.07.2016. - http://universe-tss.su/main/ politika/39430-terri-meysan-novaya-vneshnyaya-politika-velikobritanii.html