The present article is the product of research which was initially concerned principally with issues of defining external threatsin the context of national security of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Using a range of publications, articles, including the analysis of national security, this article assesses the role of the institutions in the development of strategies against external threats. The article pays particular attention to the nature and level of threats and to the organizational and legal system of national security.

Abbreviations:

1. ISAF The International Security Assistance Force, a NATO-led security mission in Afghanistan, established by the United Nations Security Council in December 2001. Its main purpose was to train the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and assist Afghanistan in rebuilding key government institutions.
2. CICA The Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia is an inter-governmental forum for enhancing cooperation towards promoting peace, security and stability in Asia. It is a forum based on the recognition that there is close link between peace, security and stability in Asia and in the rest of the
3. XUAR Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a provincial-level autonomous region of China in the northwest of the
4. SAMK The Spiritual administration of Muslims of Kazakhstan is religious association of Muslims, partly affiliated with the

The aim of the article: to define the category of external threats, that might cause destabilization in the region via conducting quantitative content analysis.

The law “On National Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan” defines national security as “a state of protection of national interests of the country against real and potential threats”, and accordingly threats to national security as “a combination of conditions, processes and factors that impede the realization of national interests or create a danger”.

Research in the field of national security issues highlight the importance of effective administrative and legal national security system procedures in the field of national security and development on this basis of proposals for improving the performance of the national security agencies.In modern conditions, administrative and legal regulation of national security is a priority and the most effective tools for solving the challenges facing the government in the face of new threats to the national interests of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

By analyzing the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan «On National Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan», «On Combating Terrorism», «On Countering Extremism», other normative legal acts, current issues of organizational and legal forms of international cooperation of the Republic of Kazakhstan on National Security are considered.

It was stressed in the Address by the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Leader of the Nation, N.Nazarbayev «Strategy Kazakhstan-2050»: new political course of the established state» of December 14, 2012 that «during the years of independence Kazakhstan has taken place as an equal participant in international processes, and we were able to create a favorable external conditions» [1]. The Head of State pointed out that the priority of the modernization of the foreign policy is the comprehensive strengthening of regional and national security.

According to E.L. Nechaev, a set of dangerous conditions and factors creates various threats to national security. The category “threat” also has a basic meaning in understanding the essence of national security. The nature and level of threats predetermine the leading directions in their prevention and neutralization, determine the choice of methods, methods and means of ensuring national security. Timely detection of threats and an adequate response to them form the basis of immediate practical activities to protect the vital interests of the individual, society and the state [2].

According to the law “On National Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan”, the set of political, economic, social and other needs of the Republic of Kazakhstan should be understood as national interests, from the realization of which the state’s ability to protect the constitutional rights of a person and citizen, the values of Kazakhstan’s society, the fundamental state institutions depends.

Organizational and legal system of national security includes a number of public bodies. System of national security form, first, interacting forces maintain it, and secondly, other government agencies and organizations engaged in political action, legal, organizational, economic, military and other measures aimed at protecting national interests [3].

New (non-traditional) security threats

Globalization has increased the effectiveness of non-governmental organizations. And the information revolution has led to increase in the number and increasing influence of network structures. International crime today is represented mainly by network structures, in the fight against which state institutions based on the principles of hierarchy, often lose.

Today, transnational criminal groups have almostunlimitedopportunities for bribing civil servants and recruiting supporters. They are still used only to a small extent, but, if necessary, the degree of influence on the state and its structures can dramatically increase, up to the organization of armed resistance to the authorities and attempts to overthrow the government.

Threat category: constant, with a very high degree of actualization, there is a tendency to growth, under the influence of external factors.

Illegal migration poses a serious threat to the social and economic stability of Kazakhstan, turning into a factor in the complication of the criminal

Illegal migrants from the countries of Central Asia are often part of the network structures engaged in the illicit trade in arms, people and drug trafficking. In conditions of transparency of borders, complete overlapping of channels of illegal migration is impossible.

Threat category: constant, with seasonally changing intensity, it is possible to transform into the risk of the appearance of refugee camps on the territory of Kazakhstan and initiation of a “Livanization” process with loss of control over part of the country’s territory.

Trafficking in human beings (the slave trade). It is closely connected with illegal migration, as often the same transport corridors are As the incomes of criminal groups engaged in the slave trade grow, the degree of disintegrating influence on state structures cannot exist.

Threat category: undefined, but with a tendency to growth, high degree of secrecy makes it difficult to define.

International terrorism.Demonstrated the possibility of committing terrorist attacks in any country in the world. Although there are no opportunities for simultaneous operation in all countries among international terrorist groups, the threat of terrorist attacks is used by them effectively, to influence the public opinion of the ISAF participating countries in Afghanistan in favor of withdrawing their troops from this country under the threat of terrorist

Threat category: Did not show yet, but potentially with a high degree of destabilizing effect on a traditional society with undeveloped civil institutions.

Trade in Today, it has no prospects for development as a separate line of criminal business in Kazakhstan, but with the combined experience of cross-border criminal groups in other countries with wellestablished channels for transporting people, drugs and other illegal stuff in Kazakhstan, there are no serious barriers to the emergence and development.

Threat category: not shown, but quick actualization is possible in case of a request for small arms and light weapons.

The threat of regional Although within the framework of the system of interstate relations, there are no serious problems and conflicts at the regional level, most of the external threats to national interests are of a regional nature. The experience of cooperation between Central Asian countries in solving environmental problems (Aral), economic (creating a common market) or military-political (CICA support) showed that the Central Asian countries are more willing to submit to the friendly “power center” Moscow than to cooperate on an equal basis with each other . 

There is a high probability that the situation will change only in the direction of changing the “big brother”, and soon any regional conflicts of interest in Central Asia will be resolved only after the access of China to the sufficient resources for the construction of roads and railways, power plants and pipelines.

Nowadays, most of the regional threats are masked by cooperation programs within various regional structures.

Water-energy dependence on neighboring countries is largely related to the specifics of the use of Transboundary Rivers, and therefore cannot be completely overcome through unilateral measures (construction of hydrosystems, self-supply of electricity etc.).

Its consequences cause serious damage both economically and ecologically. The contamination of the Irtysh River is an example of a devastating impact on the economy, ecology and human health [4].

Threat category: a constant, with a very high degree of actualization, tends to grow.

The instability of political regimes in neighboring states can cause the possibility of social upheavals, up to the civil The probability of this is relatively small, but its destructive impact will be enormous.

A direct consequence of the instability of the regimes may be the growth of mutual distrust in relations between the states of the region, which hinders the implementation of joint economic projects and the prevention of common risks and threats.

Threat category: constant, affecting on stability of the entire Eurasian security system, it is associated with the interests of many power-centers. 8.Separatist movements in neighboring states.The real danger is only

the possibility of Uygur separatists acting in XUAR. An attempt to use cross-border criminal groups may be associated with creation in Kazakhstan a base for supplying militants in the XUAR of the PRC, which will lead to the actualization of a number of risks that have not manifested it.

Threat category: unmanifested, difficult to forecast, evaluation is difficult due to the closure of the process.

9.The use of religious factors for political purposes. The phenomenon of politicization of religion coincided with the revival of religious confessions and religious life in Kazakhstan. The driving impulse was the purposeful policy of the state, which proceeded from minimizing the relevance of this risk in comparison with the tasks of strengthening state identity.

The main factors are:

Lack of control over the ideological (i.e. political) content of religious activity due to the location of the centers of the main religions outside the country;

• the complication of the context of ethno-confessional relations with the accumulation of the potential for protest and conflict;
• the revealed lack of professionalism in the leadership of SAMK and political loyalty in the activities of a number of new trends and sects;
• the interconnection between the degree of activation of religions and the possibility of external influence on their development in connection with the problem of international terrorism;
• the prospect of the imposition of the nationalist opposition politicized religious movements;

Threat category: undefined, but if the necessary measures will not be taken, it might cause political destabilization [5,6].

Table 1 Type of threat and threat category

Conclusion

The results of the quantitative content analysis show that the categories of external threats are both constant and undefined. In this regard, it is important to note that the geopolitical position of Kazakhstan has identified the importance of the country as a transit and intermediary link in the most important areas of international cooperation. Along with the undeniable advantages of its new position, Kazakhstan faced with the necessity of a new understanding of the balance of integration initiatives and strategic directions of self-sustainable development.

The country is experiencing to some extent security issues showed the need to build an alternative institutions to overcome the external threats, especially with regard to the efficiency of national security. It is critically important to use objective prerequisites created by country for sustainable development in the future.

REFERENCES

1. Address by the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Leader of the Nation, N.Nazarbayev “Strategy Kazakhstan-2050: new political course of the established state” of December 14, 2012. Access mode URL: http://www.akorda.kz (Accessed 12.12.2017). 2 Nechayev E. Water as a factor in ensuring the national security of the Republic of
2. Kazakhstan Astana, 2006. 163 p.
3. The Act of December 21, 1995 № 2710 “On Bodies of National Security”. Access mode URL: http://online.zakon.kz/Document- (Accessed 12.12.2017).
4. The law “On National Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan”. Access mode URL: http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs- (Accessed 12.12.2017)
5. Анализ угроз национальной безопасности рк на среднесрочную перспективу. Общественный фонд «Центр социальных и политических исследований «Стратегия».
6. Режим доступа: http://www.ofstrategy.kz/index.php/ru/ research/politic-research/ item/189-analiz-ugroz-natsionalnoj-bezopasnosti-rk-na-srednesrochnuyu-perspektivu(дата обращения 12.2017).
7. Мусаев А.Д. Государственная политика по предотвращению религиозного экстремизма в Казахстане //Известия КазУМОиМЯ имени Абылай хана. Серия «Международные Отношения и Регионоведения». – 2013.№1-2 (11-12). – С.121-125.