USA- central Asia relations: john kerry’s first official visit to the region and the “c5 + 1” format

Abstract

From October 31 to November 3, 2015, the Secretary of State of the United States John Kerry paid an official visit to Central Asia for the first time to bring the relations with the countries of the region to a new level. During his official visit to Samarkand, John Kerry held talks with Foreign Ministers of Central Asian countries in Samarkand within the C5 + 1 format on issues of strengthening mutual cooperation and other international and regional issues. In addition, the US Secretary of State held bilateral meetings with the Central Asian leaders. The official visit of John Kerry to Central Asia is remarkable for being paid when the disagreements between US and Russia over issues of Ukraine and Syria in Eastern Europe and the Middle Eastwere escalated. The mutual competition between the two powers in relations to the Central Asian region is certainly a concern for Central Asian countries that can spread threats in the region. In this regard, the Central Asian countries are primarily concerned with their foreign policy in relation to the regional (Russia, China, Iran) and non-regional powers(USA, the European Union, etc.) and prioritize to shape their foreign policy in a manner that would not contradict to the interests of these powers. 

1. The “C5 + 1”Format

John Kerry’s official visit to Central Asia should be viewed within the framework of the geostrategic position of the United States in the Eurasian region. In this regard, the United States’ policy towards Central Asia is part of a geostrategic agenda that encompasses all its interests in Eurasia after the Cold War era. To understand the reasons for John Kerry’s visit to Central Asia, it is important to understand the geo-strategies of US called “Active Geostrategic Players” and “Geopolitical Pivot” that developed for Central Asia, which is perceived as a part of Eurasia[1].

It is well-known that the geostrategic approaches of the US to Central Asia after the Cold War were founded by scholars like Zbigniew Brzezinski, Graham E. Fuller, and S. Frederic Starr and many other western scholars. In their view, if the United States wants to dominate Central Asia, which is regarded as a “Heartland” in terms of geopolitical science, it needs to focus on the following geo-strategies: [2]

1. Reducingthe Central Asian countries’ economic dependency, especially that of Kazakhstan, on regional economic powers (Russia, China etc.), and therefore, to ensure constant financial investments [3];
2. Ensuring that the Central Asian leaders take into account the interests of the United States when dealing with regional issues and, in this context, increase the bilateral contacts of American politicians with the political elites in the region;
3. Supporting Central Asian countries in the fields of democratic and human rights development and providing regular assistance to regional countries in these areas;
4. Strengthening the dependence of the Central Asian countries on the WTO, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and ensuring that they do not abandon the market economy Integrating them into the global economy and avoiding the dependence on other countriesin economic and financial terms. That is, weakening of the Central Asian countries’ economic and financial links with the leading countries in the region (especially Russia, China, etc.) and preventing their economic dominance in the region;
5. Weakening the influence of Russia and other powerful countries in Central Asia, and, if necessary, strengthen the linkages of regional countries with various integrational structures of the West;
6. Safeguarding the interests of the United States in the energy sector in Central Asia and the interests that America cannot renounce. In this context,the strategy implies political and economic support for Central Asian countries, which seek to implement multi-directional pipeline strategy in the energy sector [3].

In short, the purpose of the United States’ main geostrategic focus on Central Asia is to protect America’s interests in the region and to ensure that the actors or alliances that do not comply with the policies of those interests do not get too strong. With this intention, US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in New York to attend the UN’s 70th Anniversary summit where he held bilateral meetings with Foreign Ministers of Central Asia on September 26. During the meeting, the C5 + 1 format was set up and the participants agreed to discuss important issues on global and regional issues within the framework of this format [4].

2. Central Asian Countries Bilateral Meetings: John Kerry continued his official visit to Central Asia from Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The US Secretary of State held bilateral talks with these countries on November 1, 2015 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on the first session of the format C5 + 1 (Central Asia + USA).
3. US-Kyrgyzstan Meeting: John Kerry took part in a bilateral meeting with Kyrgyz President AlmazbekAtambayev and Foreign Minister YerlanAbdyldaev, attended the opening of a new building of the US Embassy in Kyrgyzstan and the new campus of the American University in Central Asia [5]. During the meeting, special attention was paid to the following issues and the establishment of a roadmap for the enhancement of multilateral cooperation and the establishment of a working group in this regard.
4. Continuing cooperation within the framework of the CASA-1000 project and strengthen integration in the energy sector of the countries of Central Asia (especially Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) and South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan);
5. Ensuring security in the north of Afghanistan and Central Asia, and the joint struggle against the ISIS and other similar terrorist organizations;
6. Providing training for Afghani youth at the American University of Central Asia and providing the Afghan youth with the necessary assistance in this area;
7. To ensure the development of democratic values and human rights in Kyrgyzstan and to ensure the continuation of bilateral meetings in these areas;
8. Strengthening joint cooperation against possible natural disasters in the Tien Shan Mountains that can be caused by climate changes;
9. Strengthening cooperation for the development of Kyrgyzstan’s infrastructure and common energy projects.

Moreover, at the bilateral meeting, the US-Kyrgyz relations were not aimed against countries such as Russia or China, and warned that Kyrgyzstan’s foreign policy should not necessarily be a priority choice for Russia, China or the West [6]. In addition, it was announced that the closure of the Manas air base or the award for AzimjanAskarov’s human rights protection would not adversely affect the strengthening of bilateral relations. Specifically, the two countries’ representatives emphasize that US-Kyrgyz cooperation does not shadow relations with other regional and international allies [7].

• US-Uzbekistan Meeting: John Kerry held an official visit to Uzbekistan on November 1, 2015 and held diplomatic talks with Uzbek President Islam Karimov and the Minister of Foreign Affairs AbdulazizKamilov. The talks focused on global issues based on common interests, regional security and stability, counterterrorism, strengthening bilateral trade and economic relations, respect for human rights and political independence etc.
• US-Kazakhstan Meeting: John Kerry arrived in the Republic of Kazakhstan on November 2, 2015, and helda bilateral diplomatic meetings with President NursultanNazarbayev[8]. He also met with representatives of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kazakhstan and took part in the fourth session of the “US-Kazakhstan Strategic Dialogue” and gave a lecture on “US and Central Asia: Partnership in the 21st Century” at theNazarbayev

It was noted during the dialogue that, despite the situation in Ukraine, Kazakhstan attaches great importance to economic relations with this country. This includes cooperation between the two countries in fighting against terrorism and religious organizations, strengthening regional integration cooperation in Central Asia, strengthening Central Asia’s nuclear-weapon-free zone, strengthening cooperation in energy security, and support for EXPO-2017, the rise of human rights and democratic values in the country, and the development of independent media by the local authorities.

• US-Tajikistan Meeting: On November 3, 2015, the US Secretary of State John Kerry paid an official visit to Tajikistan. Within the framework of the visit, he met with President ImomaliRakhmon and discussed the following issues:

1. The negative effects of economic problems in Russia and China on Tajikistan and other factors that adversely affect the country’s economy;
2. Factors adversely affecting the strengthening of Tajikistan’s integration with other Central Asian countries and strengthening ties with other Central Asian neighboring countries;
3. The problems of Tajikistan in its energy sector, especially in the field of electric power and, in this regard, the conflict between neighbors (especially Uzbekistan) and the ways of its solution;
4. Tajikistan’s security concerns and US President Barack Obama’s decision to leave a certain number of troops in Afghanistan and its impact on regional security;
5. Ensuring Tajikistan’s border security, increasing co-operation for stability in Afghanistan, joint fight against terrorism, extremism and illegal drug trafficking;
6. Protection of human rights and the independence of Tajikistan. Development of a positive attitude of the government towards the involvement of people in politics and providing religious freedom.

In addition to the above-mentioned issues, during his talks with the President of Tajikistan John Kerry paid much attention to the Tajikistan’s energy capacity to cover the needs of Tajikistan and of Afghanistan over the next five years.

US-Turkmenistan Meeting: On November 3, 2015, John Kerry met with the Turkmen President GurbangulyBerdymukhammedov. However, this meeting cannot be considered separately from the “US- Turkmenistan political dialogue” that took place on October 15-16. That is, the Kerry-Berdymukhammedov’s meeting should be considered as a higher level continuation of the issues raised during the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan Rashid Meredov to the United States. Recall that, during his official visit to the United States, Rashid Meredov focused on two topics: regional security and

The United States is not concerned with Turkmenistan’s relations with Russia, but rather with its growing cooperation with China in the field of energy [9]. In this regard, it is known that John Kerry’s visit to Central Asian countries is aimed not only at reducing Russia’s influence, but also of China. Before the official visit of John Kerry to Turkmenistan, the Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, paid an official visit to Turkmenistan[10]. As it is known, Japan is a historic enemy and rival state of China. It would be a mistake not suppose that the visits of the two allies, such as the United States and Japan, to Turkmenistan were spontaneous. On the contrary, these visits were paid with a specific purpose of supporting the Turkmenistan’s energy-rich pipeline diversification policy through investing in this sector and to fight against threats from Afghanistan. Thus, the Chinese vector of foreign policy in Turkmenistan is expected to weaken.

On the other hand, if to take into account China’s investment in the energy sector of Turkmenistan   and its future investment, the Chinese vector of Turkmenistan’s foreign policy will not weaken at least    in the near future. Turkmen President GurbangulyBerdymukhammedov paid an official visit to China on November 11-12, expressing strong confidence in China. However, given the fact that the US policy toward Turkmenistan is not limited to the short-term perspective, John Kerry’s visit should be seen as the first step in the policy of the United States to implement a medium-term and long-term policy approaches in relation to Turkmenistan.

The bilateral talks focused on human rights and freedoms. However, given the fact that Turkmenistan is based on a closed system of society, it is doubtful that democratic values and values of human rights will develop in the short term perspective [4].

“C5 + 1” Format (Central Asia and the US): On 1 November 2015, the C5+ 1 format was formed in Samarqand to discuss issues of common interests of the United States and Central Asia within the format of

In this context, negotiations within the format can be divided into 4 topics: 1) Diversification of economic relations and cooperation in this area. 2) Cooperation against various natural disasters that may arise due to climate changes and environmental problems.3) Respect for human values and rights, ensuring people’s active involvement in political processes in the society and access to a compulsory education system.4) Ensure security in the north of Afghanistan and to strengthen common cooperation against threats that have a negative impact on regional stability.

Discussing the key issues mentioned in the negotiations within the framework of the C5+1 format can be seen in the context of John Kerri’s statements and the signing of the Joint Declaration, as follows:

1. Diversification of economic relations and cooperation: Hillary Clinton’s 2011 The New Silk Road project, which was launched in India on July 20, is important [5]. Through this project, the United States intends to strengthen Central Asian countries’ cooperation with South Asia through Afghanistan. In addition, this project will diversify the trade relations of Central Asian countries and will compete with China’s “Silk Road Economic Belt” and integration efforts of the Russian leadership. In this regard, it can be assumed that the United States will make every effort to implement the New Silk Road and CASA-1000 projects in order to reduce the dependence of Central Asian countries on direct global markets and reduce the economic and trade dependence on China and Russia. This position of the United States indicates its growing interest in Central Asia and a new opportunity for countries in the region, which seek to reduce dependence on Russia and China.
2. Environmental co-operation: The United States’s commitment to this area is often intended to meet the needs of countries in the In this regard, the response to the demand for clean energy in the region is to prevent the escalation of disagreements between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in the lower reaches of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, due to the ice melting in Tien Shan Mountains.
3. Democracy and respect for human rights: The United States considers the political system of Central Asian countries as authoritarian and based on underdeveloped democratic governance. From this point of view, the development of relations with the democratically developed United States in a highly developed democracy and open society system may well be criticized in the United States on the domestic political arena. For example, recently, US media criticized the attempts of the US government to develop relations with such authoritarian states like Uzbekistan and
4. Regional security and stability: At the present, the Central Asian countries are concerned about the growing presence of the Taliban in northern Afghanistan and the growing ISIS and similar terrorist organizations in that country. The expansion of the influence of these terrorist organizations in the Middle East, as well as the involvement of Central Asian citizens in these organizations, and the presence of these organizations in the Syrian opposition, create concerns that these organizations will expand into Central Asia in the future. However, the United States promised that the region will fight against such threats and will help to ensure stability in Central

In addition, the US Secretary of State has announced a new program of assistance for Central Asian countries, which includes the following topics:

• Enhancement of competitiveness, education and jobs: Strengthening the export potential of Central Asian countries, especially in trade relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Providing new jobs and younger generation education in this direction.
• Central Asian Trade Forum: To continue the forum and to double the number of young people participating in the forum.
• Climate adaptation and simplified project for the Aral Sea: To this end, the United States has agreed that countries in the region will be able to adapt to climate change and use the World Bank’s potential to save the Aral
• Smart Waters Program: The United States will help to create a special staff for the efficient use of water resources in Central Asia and Afghanistan and will contribute to the development of the younger generation in this area.
• American University of Central Asia: The United States has spent $ 30 million to develop this university since 2002 and it will not stop doing this continuing until 2018.
• Cooperation in the fields of education, English language and culture: 30 Americans will be sent to the region for language training and 150 English language teachers will be trained in Central Asia. Moreover, 1,500 young people who have completed their education will be able to master English

Future of the US-Central Asian Relations: Taking into account the events taking place in global politics, it can be said that John Kerry’s official visit to Central Asia was constructive and relevant. This is because the current rivalry of US with Russia and China in different parts of the wider Eurasian region is growing. Competition between these giant countries can also have a negative impact on Central Asian countries. For example, recently there have been cases of rivalry based on misunderstanding between Russia and US around Ukraine in Eastern Europe, concerning Syria in the Middle East and around the Eurasian Economic Union, which is an integrational process under the Russian leadership. Moreover, China, whose influence in increasing in Central Asia, is boosting its political and economic ties with its Pacific Ocean Allies and the United States in order to create around itself a geopolitical circle. For the United States that pursuesits policy goals at the global level it would not be possible to ignore the Central Asian countries, which make the so called Eurasian Heartland, within the framework of its geopolitical vision of the Therefore, John Kerry’s official visit to Central Asia and the C5 + 1 show the high interest of US in the Central Asian region and that it will it boost its geopolitical interests in the region not letting Russia and China to become the only superpowers in the region. This, in turn, shows that the competitiveness among large powerful countries in Central Asia will rise. In this regard, Qatar’s desire to invest in Kazakhstan and the desire of Japan to increase economic relations with the countries of Central Asia should be understood as the attempts of the United States to encourage its allies to strengthen their Central Asian policy.

It is important to answer to the question how do the Central Asian countries feel about increasing relations with the United States, especially when it comes to the question of how will the Russia’s position develop in this regard? If we analyze the theme from the point of view of Russia, it is appropriate to analyze the Central Asian countries’ relations with Russia. In this regard, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are active members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), established under the Russian leadership for strengthening military-security cooperation among its members [12]. In addition, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are active members of the “Eurasian Economic Union.” Kyrgyzstan has shown that by closing the Manas air base, it will not act in the future with the United States against the threats from Afghanistan and that it does not intend to provide its national security with the help of the United States. Therefore, it can be assumed that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will continue their relations with the United States.

In addition, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan welcomed the separation from the security, political and economic integration processes established under the leadership of Russia. At the same time, the negotiations on public interest are encouraged not only within organizations that have different influence, but also through bilateral agreements. Therefore, relations of the two countries with the United States may increase in the future. In fact, the first meeting of the C5 + 1 format will be held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. In general, Uzbekistan has refused to continue its membership in the CSTO and it also denied the accession to the Eurasian Economic Union proposed by the Russian President Vladimir Putin and pursues a foreign-policy based on relations with China. As for Turkmenistan, since recently it has been focusing on developing relations with Uzbekistan, especially on strengthening bilateral relations in security. In 1995, Turkmenistan announced its adherence to a neutral foreign policy, but in recent years, Turkmenistan’sforeign policy has become active.

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan can expand their cooperation with the United States to strengthen security and counter the challenges facing northern Afghanistan. The reason is that the CSTO does not limit their mutual relations in the area of security. However, Uzbekistan’s “Foreign Policy Concept” states that Uzbekistan cannot be a member of any alliances and that ties with one country cannot cause damage to the ties with other countries in the region [13]. Taking this into account, Uzbekistan’s leaders are involved in conducting their relations with the United States in a way that does not adversely affect Russia and China. Thus, it is possible to assume that in the future, Uzbekistan will take into consideration the national interest in bilateral relations, taking into account the experience of the developed of relations with US, and will pursue a sound foreign policy [14].

Conclusion

In spite of the official visit of John Kerry, it can be assumed that relations between the US and Central Asian countries will not be short-term and will not strengthen in the near future. An increase in bilateral relations is directly dependent on Russia and China’s policy of countering the interests of Central Asian countries. If Russia and China are pursuing a policy that is contrary to the national interests of the Central Asian countries, it is quite possible that the countries of the region will go deeper in their relations with the United States on the basis of equality policy. In this regard, the visit of John Kerry to Central Asia was a response to the question of which areas of cooperation with the countries of the region could be considered and Russia and China were in the focus of the region. The visit of John Kerry to the format C5 + 1, which will further strengthen the US-Russia and China, and depend on the policies of these two powers in Central Asia. That is, if Russia and China show a non-compliant position in conflict-prone areas in the interests of the United States, it is possible to predict that the United States will focus on Central Asian policies and take steps that can affect the interests of Russia and China.

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