Factors and forms of migration in the Eurasian migration system

The article is intended for a comprehensive analysis of global problems of classification and regulation of migration. The problem of migration in the world is notable for its complexity. The reason is that, besides legal issues, political economic, demographic and social problems, both ethnographic and economic problems of human resources are relevant. The legal aspect has a special place. The legal branch plays a crucial role in the legal regulation of the migration process and its regulation. The change in the age structure of the population of the CIS countries is associated with the problem of aging. In the vast majority of countries in the postSoviet space, the proportion of people of retirement age will increase, as well as the proportion of youth and working-age population will decline. This process will be especially intensive in Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia. An increase in the share of pensioners in the total population will be fraught with an increase in pension burdens and an increase in the expenditures of states for pension payments, health care and social expenditures. At present, a stable migration subsystem has emerged between Russia, Kazakhstan and the countries of Central Asia, which is characterized by large-scale migration flows and a steady geographical orientation.

Introduction

By migration system is meant as a group of countries that are connected by relatively extensive and stable migration flows, which are the results of historical, cultural, economic, demographic and political factors and lead to structural transformations in the countries of entering and leaving of migrants, reproducing the direction of migration flows and giving them flow resistance. The term «Eurasian Migration System» was proposed and justified by I.V. Ivakhnyuk. She identifies features that allow to characterize post-Soviet Eurasia as a unified system of migrants: the presence of stable migration flows between the countries of the former USSR; common historical past and long existence within a single state; formation of the center of the migration system (Russia) and the new center of the migration system (Kazakhstan); the existence of the Russian language as an opportunity for migration; mutual interest in maintaining «within the regional» migration of Russia and Kazakhstan, on the one hand, and countries of origin of migrants, on the other. After 1991, more than 20 million people from the former Soviet republics changed their place of permanent residence, with 90 % of them resettled within the countries of the near abroad. Only Russia during 1992–1997 accepted 12 million migrants from the countries of the former USSR, and the total number of labor migrants from these countries who were recruited in Russia amounted to about 4 million people. According to research data, 92 % of immigrants in the CIS countries come from other CIS countries and only 8 % enlist in the region from other states. With regard to expatriates, the corresponding figures are 72 % and 28 %.

Table 1 The balance of migration for permanent residence in the countries of the Eurasian migration system, thousand people*

Note. The data are based on the number of people registered with the internal affairs agencies when they change their permanent residence [1; 36].

Methods and Materials

The statistics of the CIS countries currently include two main sources of information on migration. The first source is data on migration for permanent residence, it relies on the system of population registration by place of residence, mostly through the internal affairs bodies of the respective countries. According to these data, the main pole of the attractiveness of migrants over the past twenty years has been the Russian Federation, in the last decade have become Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus, and literally recent years — Azerbaijan and Georgia. Displacement areas of migrants are Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Uzbekistan. For a long time migratory swelling occurred in Azerbaijan and Georgia, which recently became the pole of migrants' permanent residence (Table 1).

The second source is data on temporary labor migration, which is based on data from migration and border control services in sending and receiving migrant countries. According to official sources, the scale of legal labor migration in the CIS countries over the past years has been steadily increasing: if in 2002 in the region there was a figure of about 390 thousand labor migrants, then in 2010 this figure exceeded 1.7 million people (Table 2) [2; 58].

Table 2 The number of foreign workers attracted to the economy of some CIS countries, thousand people

The territory of the former USSR can be differentiated in terms of trends in economic development and the course of economic reforms. According to the method of conducting systemic reforms, states can be divided into three groups: 1) «radicals» (Baltic states, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia); 2) «conservatives» (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Belarus); 3) «transitional group» (Moldova, Ukraine, Tajikistan, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan). The «radical» can be attributed to countries that used mainly methods of «shock therapy». «Conservatives» used more cautious ways of transition to a market economy, which is by no means evidence of the failure of their socio-economic reforms. For example, in 2005 Belarus ranked second in the CIS in terms of industrial production growth rates and divided third and fourth in terms of GDP growth rates. The most extensive group of «transitional countries» included, respectively, those who carried out the transformation more slowly than «radicals», but faster than «conservatives». Of course, this classification is conditional, since there are many criteria for systemic reforms. The above classification was compared with the classification by the impact of labor migration. The countries — «radicals» from the point of view of the labor migration ratio are heterogeneous: Russia and Kazakhstan accept migrants, and Kyrgyzstan gives migrants abroad. According to our calculations, in Russia the entry of labor emigrants (labor migration) exceeds departure (labor emigration) 12 times, and in Kazakhstan — 10 times. In Kyrgyzstan, the ratio is inverse — the departure of migrant workers over entry prevails here. The «transitional group» of the CIScountries is more homogeneous in terms of migration. In all of these states (Moldova, Ukraine, Tajikistan, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) labor emigration exceeds immigration. For example, in 2005 in Ukraine, there were six migrants per worker migrant who arrived in the country who went abroad to work. In Moldova and Tajikistan, this ratio is as follows: 1:40 and 1: 600. Among the states of «conservatives» there are obvious migration donors — Uzbekistan and Belarus and practically isolated from the point of view of labor migration — Turkmenistan (Table 3).

Table 3 Typology of the CIS countries by the ratio of the main parameters of the official

labor migration and the methods of carrying out systematic work

Note. The ratio between labor immigrants and emigrants is calculated on the basis of the legal flow of labor migrants for 2005 [3; 85].

If we compare two «radicals» and «recipients» at the same time — Russia and Kazakhstan, then it is more objective to do this on the basis of relative data, since Russia has a large population and the size of the economy. According to calculations I.V. Ivakhnyuk, in 2005, was ahead of Kazakhstan by 28 times, going to work abroad — by 108 times. In her opinion, this indicates a higher migration turnover in Russia. In other words, despite the seemingly successful economic development, Russia continues to actively transfer labor migrants abroad. It also proves that a special labor market regime has been formed in the country, which is characterized by «deliverance» of its own employees due to low wages and their replacement by cheap labor resources from abroad. Such an extensive way of economic development indicates an irrational use of labor resources in Russia.

Russia is currently the center of the Eurasian migration system; economically, it surpasses other countries of the former USSR in terms of economic potential and scale of the labor market; demographically, Russia is experiencing such quantitative and structural changes that make it dependent on attracting foreign labor; politically, Russia is showing interest in strengthening integration in the post-Soviet area, giving priority in its migration policy to interaction with the CIS countries; geographically, Russia is for most countries of the former USSR the closest neighbor with which they are connected by direct transport links. The evolution of the structure of the Eurasian migration system and the emergence of new centers of attraction for labor migrants in Kazakhstan and Ukraine suggests that in the near future the direction of migration flows in the post-Soviet area may diversify and Russia will face increasing competition for labor resources at the regional level. Under these conditions, a strategically verified migration policy at the national level, the development of regional integration processes aimed at creating a common labor market and the intensification of intergovernmental mechanisms of migration cooperation with countries — exporters of labor resources at this stage becomes a vital task for Russia.

At the present stage of development, subsystems are distinguished in the structure of the Eurasian migration system, some of which originated and develop «within the system», others are «outside the system», connecting the states of the Eurasian system with other countries and systems. First, it is a sub-regional Central Asian subsystem, uniting Russia and the countries of Central Asia. Secondly, this migration subsystem unites Russia and Belarus, where the labor mobility between two countries and unified employment rights are governed by the existence of the Union State Treaty. Ukraine and Moldova have a special position, the geopolitical position and the political course of the leadership of these states bring them closer to the countries of the European Union and form the western vector of migration, while the centuries-old history and preservation of economic, cultural, socio-psychological and emotional ties with Russia and other countries the former USSR contribute to the maintenance of the eastern vector of migration. Demographic trends in the development of Ukraine and Moldova make them potential recipients of migrants. In the coming years, Ukraine and Moldova will remain simultaneously part of two migration systems, maintaining migration links with Russia, attracting temporary and permanent migrants from the CIS countries, remaining transit countries, as well as developing migration cooperation with the EU, including through migration networks already formed there. Ukrainian and Moldovan migrants. Turkmenistan and Georgia stand separately, migration from which to other countries of the Eurasian migration system is limited due to political factors. The Baltic republics, which until 2004 were part of the Eurasian migration system, after joining the EU became part of the European migration system, while maintaining migration ties with the former Soviet republics. Also, some CIS countries are part of migration systems connecting them with Israel, the USA, Germany and China.

Results

The heterogeneity of the space of the Eurasian migration system is due to the complex action of several factors.

Cultural and historical factor. It can be argued that this factor is one of the main factors in the formation of migration flows in the post-Soviet area. The Eurasian migration system was practically formed within the framework of the former Soviet Union. The main for its formation were the socio-economic relations between people and countries, formed over the seventy years of the USSR, as well as the spread of the Russian language, as the main means of communication between people within the entire former Soviet Union. Obviously, when choosing the direction of migration abroad, residents of Central Asian countries are guided by the fact that knowledge of the Russian language and understanding of the population's mentality significantly increases their chances of finding jobs in Russia and Kazakhstan, countries that are close not only geographically but also culturally.

Infrastructure and geographical factor. The convenience of the geographical position of Russia and Kazakhstan for Central Asia is also obvious. The state for Central Asia, despite its geographical location in the «heart» of Eurasia, is significantly more closely connected with Kazakhstan and through Russia with Russia than with China, Afghanistan, the Middle East and other regions. One can get to the territory of Russia and Kazakhstan from Central Asia by various types of transport: rail, road, sea, air. In recent years, air transportation has been widely developed; tickets for flights to major Russian cities are relatively inexpensive. As a result, the transport factor began to significantly stimulate the migration of the population.

The political factor. On the one hand, the presence of relatively normal political relations among the countries of Central Asia with Kazakhstan and Russia, as well as the non-visa regime of displacement predetermines the significant scale of migration flows. Currently, citizens of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and a number of other countries can enter the Russian Federation without a visa (only Turkmenistan is an exception for Central Asian countries). In Kazakhstan, residents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Russia and some other states can come without a visa. Of course, periodically political relations are aggravated, which partly affects the situation primarily of temporary labor migrants. For example, in 2011, after the detention of Russian pilots in Tajikistan, several hundred Tajik labor migrants were deported from Russia, who were in major Russian cities without registration or work permits. Periodically in the Russian political area, the issue of introducing a visa regime with Tajikistan and other Central Asian countries begins to arise. However, while between countries there is no open conflict at the political level, while maintaining a visa-free regime and relative labor mobility for the population.

On another hand, in the countries of origin there is a group of political factors that predetermine the emigration of certain groups of people to Kazakhstan and Russia. First of all, it is the departure of the Russian and Russian-speaking population, who could not adapt to the countries of Central Asia. The reason for this was the reduction in the use of the Russian language, the impossibility of moving up the career ladder, nationalism, and security threats. In many countries of Central Asia, ethnic conflicts still periodically occur, a person can be prosecuted for disagreeing with the hen of power, political beliefs, sexual orientation, this provokes a part of Central Asia to emigrate for political reasons. The latest wave of political upheavals in a number of CIS countries (the coup in Kyrgyzstan, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the Rose Revolution in Georgia, and the events of Uzbekistan) increased the number of people willing to leave these countries in Russia, primarily from ethnic Russians.

The economic factor. On the one hand, in the Central Asian countries, the main economic prerequisites for leaving a significant number of the working population are typical «displacement» factors: stagnation of production, relatively low wages, widespread poverty, high unemployment, lack of jobs. On another hand, in the host countries (Russia and Kazakhstan) there are «attracting» economic factors: diversified labor markets make it possible to find a job in different sectors of the economy and regions, to receive higher wages. In this situation, between the countries of Central Asia, on the one hand, with Russia and Kazakhstan, on another hand, a typical migration model has emerged, based on the factors of «attraction» and «displacement». This situation is clearly illustrated by Table 4.

Table 4 Indicators of living standards in some CIS countries

The problem of unemployment concerns primarily the rural population. It is clear that here, even after losing a job, people can provide for themselves thanks to the land and subsidiary farming in the natural economy. Usually, the level of registered unemployment in rural areas can be significantly affected by the territorial distance and transport accessibility of the rural settlement. Many unemployed people from villages simply cannot register as unemployed due to the lack of opportunities to go to the district center, to the employment service [4; 15]. The lack of work in the place of permanent residence pushes a person to look for it first in the immediate environment (regional center, regional city, capital), and in the absence of it within the transport accessibility — in another country.

Social factor. This factor has become central to deciding on the need for migration. In many localities of the countries of Central Asia, behavioral stereotypes have emerged in the mass consciousness that is focused on labor migration in Russia as a strategy for life success. A significant part of young people, having graduated from school, prefer to go to work in Russia or Kazakhstan, preferring this strategy to studying at a university, considering migration as a more successful strategy of behavior. The reason was the examples of the success of many relatives, neighbors and acquaintances who worked abroad and were able to buy a house, a car, necessary things, and so on. Interestingly, in recent years, the social basis of labor migration from Central Asia has significantly expanded at the expense of rural residents. Now they are increasingly involved in the process of labor emigration. Migration networks, created on the basis of social contacts, kinship and social ties, have a significant impact on the direction of migration. As various studies show, the majority of labor migrants from Central Asia in Russia and Kazakhstan are now finding jobs through social networks and private intermediaries. At the same time, the role of state structures and private employment agencies in the employment of migrants in Russia and Kazakhstan remains extremely low.

A large-scale sociological survey conducted in April 2005 within the framework of the Eurasian Monitoring project in four CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus) showed that residents of Kazakhstan are very satisfied with the standard of living. However, a sufficiently large number of respondents noted an unsatisfactory standard of living, the economic condition of the country, rather uncertain and pessimistic about the prospects for its change. All this testifies to the fact that the population attitudes to work abroad in the CIS countries remain at a high level, and a significant part of people will seek work abroad.

Demographic factors are manifested by the existence of a democratic disparity between the CIS countries. By the nature of demographic processes can be divided into three groups. The first group — the states experiencing depopulation and population decline — Russia, Ukraine, Belarus. In the three Slavic countries, the decline in population is due to the low birth rate and high mortality. External migration does not fully compensate for the natural population decline, and as a result, the population is decreasing. Forecasts show that if these trends continue, by 2050 Russia with a population of 112 million people will move from the current ninth place to the seventeenth place in the world. In addition, there are economic aspects of this problem — the country can expect a shortage of labor resources, a reduction in draftees, schoolchildren and students, and intensive aging of the population. The second group includes countries in which the population is almost unchanged. These include the three states of the former USSR — Armenia, Georgia, Moldova. A slight decrease in the population was noted in Moldova and Georgia, which was due to a decrease in the birth rate and emigration outflow of the population. In Armenia, despite significant emigration outflow of the population, the total number remained almost unchanged throughout the 2000s.

The third group includes states in which the population is growing. First of all, these are the countries of Central Asia, as well as Azerbaijan. The population of Uzbekistan grew at the fastest pace, increasing from 24.5 million to 27.1 million over the 2000 period till 2008. Uzbekistan is the most populous country in Central Asia, where the birth rate is 2.5 children per woman (on average for 2005–2010). The birth rate is even higher in Tajikistan — 3.3 children per 1 woman of reproductive age. Here, the population grew 6.1 million to 7.2 million over the same period. In Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, the birth rate was at the same level, but population growth was smaller, although for Turkmenistan it is very difficult to give accurate estimates due to the lack of demographic statistics. The lowest birth rate was in 2005–2010 in Kazakhstan — only 1.9 children per woman of reproductive age. However, even with a low birth rate, the total population of the country grew from 14.9 million to 15.6 million people from 2000 to 2008.

Discussion

The forecast of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IWEIR) of the RAS indicates that the population in the CIS regions in the medium term will increase against the background of the global population growth trend. By 2010, the world's population will grow to 6.715 million people, and in 2020 it will be 7.335 million people. In the CIS region, population growth will also be noted, but much Smaller both in absolute and relative parameters (growth rates): in 2010, the population will be 277 million, in 2020–282 million people. Population growth in the CIS countries will not be ubiquitous. The population will decrease within the SES and EurAsEC, respectively, by 2.9 and 3.1 million people. The population in the European countries of the CIS will not practically increase, but it will grow in the countries of Transcaucasia and Central Asia. It is an increase in the population in these regions that will mainly be able to ensure the projected growth in the total population within the entire CIS. Mainly, the population will increase in three states — Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Population growth in the countries of the South Caucasus and other countries of Central Asia will be minimal. As a result, the share of the CIS countries in the total population of the world against the background of intensive growth in the number and proportion of the population in developing countries will decrease from 4.73 % (2005) to 3.85 % (2020).

According to the UN forecast, the population in the CIS will decrease in the future. By 2050, it may decrease by 37 million people. Also, the population will decline within the SES and EurAsEC, respectively, by 53 and 18 million people (Table 3). However, according to this forecast, the population decline will not be widespread. CIS countries can be divided into two groups. In the first group, population growth will occur primarily due to the high birth rate. These are Azerbaijan and the countries of Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan). The largest population growth rates will be in Uzbekistan, where the number of inhabitants will grow by 30 % or more than 11 million people. The population of Tajikistan will increase by almost 3.8 million people. The population of Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan will grow by 1.8 and 1.3 million, respectively, by 2050.

The second group is the states in which the population will decline due to a further decline in the birth rate and the maintenance of a high mortality rate. These include Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia and Kazakhstan. The population, primarily of the Slavic countries — Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine — is declining quite actively. According to the UN forecast, by 2050 the population of Russia will decrease by 30 million people, Ukraine — by 19 million, Belarus — 2.6 million. The loss of population in Kazakhstan can be quite significant — about 1.7 million people. Less noticeable will be the decline in the population in Moldova (0.8 million) and Georgia (1.4 million).

The change in the age structure of the population of the CIS countries is associated with the problem of aging. In the vast majority of countries in the post-Soviet area, the proportion of people of retirement age will increase, as well as the proportion of youth and working-age population will decline. This process will be especially intensive in Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia. An increase in the share of pensioners in the total population will be fraught with an increase in pension burdens and an increase in the expenditures of states on pension payments, healthcare and social expenditures.

Conclusions

At present, a stable migration subsystem has emerged between Russia, Kazakhstan and the countries of Central Asia, which is characterized by large-scale migration flows and a steady geographical orientation. It is from these states that the main stream of migrants for permanent residence took place recently, and now they provide Russia and Kazakhstan with labor migrants for various sectors of the economy and Russian universities with educational migrants.

Population decline and population aging in some CIS countries will have a number of negative demographic, socio-economic and geopolitical consequences. Disproportions in the population can lead to a shortage in labor markets, competition for labor resources, and increased migration. Against the background of the depopulating and aging countries of the European part of the CIS, the demographic situation in the countries of Central Asia seems to be radically opposite. Here, the working age population will increase: in Uzbekistan — by 6.4 million, in Tajikistan — by 2.8 million people, in Turkmenistan — by 900 thousand, in Kyrgyzstan — by 600 thousand and in Azerbaijan — by 300 thousand people until 2050. Even with the accelerated development of the economy in these states, the entire working-age population cannot be employed. Therefore, in the near future, the countries of Central Asia will remain the most likely migration donors for Russia and Kazakhstan.

Referenses

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