Prevalence and morbidity prognosis of allergic rhinitis, pollinosis

Introduction. Half of all forms of chronic rhinitis is allergic rhinitis, the prevalence of which is increasing every year. Allergic rhinitis is characterized by inflammatory infiltration, mainly consisting of leukocytes and mast cells. Depending on the form of the disease there is seasonal allergic rhinitis occurring during flowering of herbs and flowers, and perennial rhinitis, which may disturb in any season.

Mild course of allergic rhinitis symptoms do not impair the performance and do not interfere with sleep. With an average it is noted a moderate decrease of daily activity, sleep quality impairment. About severe allergic rhinitis testify the expressed these symptoms [3].

Aim of the Research. To study the prevalence and prognosis of diseases with allergic rhinitis, hay fever.

Materials and methods. The generally accepted in modern science methodology and techniques have been used in the course of scientific research: comparative, correlation, regression, mathematical, analytical.

Results and discussions. The features of spread and prognosis of allergic rhinitis, hay fever were studied. The analysis of the incidence of allergic rhinitis, hay fever in dynamics for 2000-2013 years was conducted. Scientific prognosis of allergic rhinitis, hay fever in the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2023 was substantiated. In this case, the arithmetic mean value for the independent variable is determined from the point of time indicated by a series of natural numbers [1, 2]:

Calculated on this equation the value y.. the dependent variable is placed in the last column of Table 1 More than a visual representation of this gives Figure 1, which shows the calculated scrap and smoothly running the line of the series.

Table 1- Dynamics of allergic rhinitis, hay fever per 100 thousand of population of Tashkent city in absolute rate

The aligned data of calculated continuously running line of prevalence allergic rhinitis, hay fever per 100 thousand of population in Tashkent city allergic rhinitis, hay fever in 2000 was reported 239 cases, in 2006 - 269, in 2013 - 305 cases. These figures are given in Table 2. The resulting smooth line can be extended to give a prognosis for 2014-2023 years. To talk about the reliability of the statistical

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ОҢТҮСТІК ҚАЗАҚСТАН МЕМЛЕКЕТТІК ФАРМАЦЕВТИКА АКАДЕМИЯСЫ ХАБАРШЫ №4(77)-2016ж.. ТОМ 5

prognosiss of the dynamics of any phenomena is possible only while maintaining overall trends, i.e. with a certain degree of inertia phenomena.

Table 2 - Prognosis prevalence of allergic rhinitis, hay fever (per 100 thousand of population) for 2014-2023 years

According to the prognosis prevalence of diseases of allergic rhinitis, hay fever in 2016 in Tashkent city per 100 thousand of population expected 320 cases, in 2020 - 340 cases, in 2023 - 355 cases. In Navoi region is expected 467 cases, in 2020 - 508, in 2023 - 539. In the republic per 100 thousand of population in 2016 it is expected 183 cases of illness, in 2020 - 170, in 2023 - 159. A prognosis of allergic rhinitis, hay fever until 2023 for the Republic of Uzbekistan was made. The obtained results in the future will allow to calculate in advance the need for health care institutions in pharmaceuticals. The results can be used for the purpose of proper organization, diagnosis and treatment of allergic rhinitis, hay fever in outpatient and inpatient settings. All these measures will contribute to the improvement of providing system of public and medical institutions with quality and highly effective drugs.

Conclusion. It has been analyzed the level of prevalence of disease with allergic rhinitis, hay fever in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the period from 2000 to 2013. It has been made and analyzed the prognosis of allergic rhinitis, hay fever until 2023 for the Republic of Uzbekistan. The prognosis prevalence of allergic rhinitis, hay fever in the Republic until 2023 - per 100 thousand of population will be159 cases.

List of literature.

1. Суюнов Н.Д. Фармакоэкономический анализ и оптимизация лекарственного обеспечения пациентов с заболеваниями органов дыхания Монография. - Ташкент, 2013. «Фан». - 240 с. 2. Новиков Д.А., Новочадов В.В. Статистические методы в медико-биологическом эксперименте (типовые случаи). - Волгоград: Изд-во ВолГМУ, 2005. - 84 с. Суюнов Н.Д. Аллергический ринит: основные аспекты заболевания и характеристика лекарственных препаратов, используемых при фармакотерапии // Медицинский журнал Узбекистана. - Ташкент, 2012. - №1. - С. 106-109.