2 million people die every year from liver diseases related to viral hepatitis B, which means that death occurs every 30 seconds. Chronic HBV is the infection that is responsible for most fatal cases connected with viral hepatitis B: about 25% of patients infected in their childhood and 15% of elderly patients die from liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. About 25-40% of chronic carriers of HBV die from liver diseases (such as liver cirrhosis with or without hepatocellular carcinoma) in Asian-Pacific region, where chronic HBV infection is widely spread [1].
Data and techniques. Epidemiological post evaluation of incidence rate of viral hepatitis B was carried out with the help of the statistical collector —Health of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the activity of public health organizations from 1993 to 2015”. We have studied the course, the structure and the incidence rate of the disease from 1993 to 2015 with the disease prognosis for 2016. Results and discussion. The analysis of high-level measurements of long-term dynamics of viral hepatitis B incidence rate in the Republic of Kazakhstan from 1993 to 2015 can be seen in the diagram 1. The maximum incidence rate during the period of study was registered in 1996 - 29.72 cases per 100000 people, whereas the minimum rate was in 2011 - 1.76 respectively. We have noticed high incidence rate of viral hepatitis B during the period of 1993-2004. The measurements per 100000 people are 25.1; 23.6; 26.79; 29.72; 29.34; 25.31; 18.31; 22.4; 19.88; 15.1; 13.1 and 12.35
respectively. The main reasons for incidence might have been the following factors: contacts with infected blood, uncontrolled sexual behaviour, etc.
In spite of the distinct fall in the number of people infected with acute hepatitis B there is high incidence rate of chronic forms of the disease. Such patients are the sources of the infection for 90% of those infected with acute hepatitis. The more infected people there are in the society the higher the epidemic potential of hepatitis B is and consequently the incidence rate increases [2, 3, 4].
The timeframe of 2006 - 2011 is characterized with a stable decrease in the incidence rate of viral hepatitis B thanks to prevention and vaccination programmes.
To evaluate the long-term tendency of incidence rate we have calculated annual average reduction/growth pace. For the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan the reduction pace equals - 10,3% and according to the gradation of V.D.Belyakov is estimated as significant reduction pace.
When we estimate the direction and the significant reduction pace of the incidence rate there are cyclical fluctuations in the course of viral hepatitis B from 1993 to 1998, from 1999 to 2011, from 2012 to 2014. If the tendency of the incidence rate of viral hepatitis B remains intact by 2016, the incidence rate might fluctuate between 0.2%000 and -5.8%000. The estimated (theoretical) incidence rate of viral hepatitis B in 2016 will be -3.2 per 100000 people. Therefore, the dynamics of incidence rate of viral hepatitis B in the Republic of Kazakhstan is characterized by significant reduction pace and long-term repeatability of the course of epidemical process.
References:
- .Marievskiy V.F. (2005) Epidemical characteristics of viral hepatitis B and C and avoidance policy. The thesis of PhD in Medicine 14.02.02 Academy of Medical Science of Ukraine, Institute of Epidemiology and Virulent Diseases named after L.V.Gromashevskiy, Kiev, 332 pages.
- .Pokrovskiy V.I., Briko N.I. General Epidemiology with the basics of argumentative medicine // A guidance for practical work - Moscow, GEOTAR-Media, 2010, 400 pages.
- .Amireyev S.A. Standard definitions of cases and procedures of measures in virulent diseases // A practical guidance. Almaty., Brand book, Volume 1, Second Enlarged Edition - 2014. - Page 632.
- .Yuschuk N.D., Vengerova Y. Virulent Diseases: The national guidance . - Moscow: GOETAR Media, 2009. - 1056 pages.