The article is devoted to the analysis of Russian historical and political science literature on the problem of China’s Central Asian policy taking the example of the Chinese-Kazakhstan relations in the 1990–2000 ss. The author concludes that the Sino-Kazakh relations scholars are given a positive assessment, but a number of factors are named which can affect positive prospects of bilateral relationship.
There are many scientific centers in modern Russia, which is engaged in studying China. The main part is focused in Moscow: Institution of Far East RAS (FEI RAS), Institute of orientalism RCA (IO RAS), Moscow State Institute for International Relations FM of RF (MSIIR FM of RF), Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS), Institute of world economics and International Relations RCA (IWE and IR RAS), Institute of Asian and African countries MSU named after M.V.Lomonossov (IAC AC MSU). Also, there are regional Russian centers, which are located in such cities as Omsk, Tomsk, Chita, Vladivostok, Krasnoyarsk, Kazan and others.
Russian Sinology, being the successor of the highly qualified Soviet school, has retained its core, allowing it to be justly called one of the leading sinology schools in the world.
The main topics covered in the works of Russian sinologists directly related to China's relations with Central Asian states are: regional challenges, security threats in the so-called «Greater Central Asia», China's economic presence in Central Asia (CA), the formation and development of diplomatic relations between China and the countries of the Central Asia Region (CAR), an analysis of the agreements and arrangements, a description of the way of establishment and development of regional relations.
The general оpinion of scientists is that Central Asia is one of the important trends in the foreign policy of China recent years. The first is an economic interest, as the rapid growth of China's economic rates is accompanied by the need for energy and other kinds of mineral raw materials. To day, the projects are developed fields of in the oil and gas, nuclear, electrical power, transportation, metallurgy, the telecommunications. The implementation of many projects adversely affects the interests of Russia in Central Asia. Therefore, the elements of rivalry between China and Russia, of course, exist, but may be settled, according to Russian scientists' оpinion as part of any joint projects .
The political interest of China in a neighboring region, directly related to the problems of internal and regional security according to Russian sinologists. One of the components of internal security issues related to Xinjiang: a part of Central Asia, bordered by the troubled territory of China — Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR). Ethnic link relation of population of the area with a population of Central Asian countries pushes the official Beijing to seek support for the policy which it holds against ethnic separatism, religious extremism and international terrorism in Xinjiang. Regional security is related to China's concern about the activization of the leading countries of the world, primarily the United States in Central Asia. It was written by many Russian authors .
The studying of China's presence in Central Asia, allows drawing conclusions for foreign policy, and effectively developing geo-strategic plans for both China and Central Asian countries. M.L. Titarenko in the preface to the book «The world powers in Central Asia» (2011) writes that «today, this region (CA — B.D.) attracts the attention of all major countries and international organizations. Here not only countries of this region and its neighbors, but the U.S.A. and the EU member states, Japan and NATO plays geopolitical game. The stakes are high: the one who will be able to influence the political situation in the region, will provide itself access to its rich natural and human resources» .
Arguments of scientists at the rivalry between Russia and China in the region are interesting. Some researchers see no threat to Russia's interests in the CAR by CPR . But many optimistic views, that China activating in CA does not aim to compete with Russia, are opposed to the publication of scientists concerned with this situation . Security problems in Central Asia can not be considered without full consideration of the Chinese factor, — said A.Volohova . A.N.Karneev urges Russia not to relax, do not indulge in the euphoria over the good Russian-Chinese relations: «Some are arguing about alternative cooperation or confrontation with China, about the risk of deterioration in relations. But from the other side one should also see the risk of too close embraces of strategic partner, strategic cooperation built by inertia «for promotion of friendship», without well-judged strategy, without clear concept of possible compensatory measures and mechanisms, protection of the national interests» .
In our opinion the situation began to change after the formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Most of the publications in 2000 were devoted to the organization and its role in the Sino-Russian relations in the framework of multilateral economic, political, and humanitarian cooperation.
Recent years due to the increase of the role of CAR in world politics and economy and increasing leading world powers competition for influence in the region, Russian scientists are trying to encourage the government to change the nature of Russian foreign policy with regard to CAR. The essence of prevention lies in the fact that self-confident, and in some places not serious and condescending attitude of the Russian authorities to cooperate with the countries of Central Asia may lead to a loss of position by all indicators in the strategically important area in terms of national security.
In the 5th issue, of 2003 of the journal «Problems of the Far East» record of the meeting of the Academic Council of the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IFE RAS) from September 5, 2003 was printed, on which the report of the Director of IFE RAS Academician M.L.Titarenko «On the challenges facing the Institute» was heard and discussed. The author of the report emphasized the need for increased attention to the study of a number of topical issues, including activities such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China's policy toward the countries of the CIS, Central Asia, etc. . In our opinion this research setting, also gave incitement to Russian scientists to pay closer attention to the study of Central Asian countries and make a special emphasis on the analysis of China's presence in this region (in order to develop effective and far-sighted strategy of Russian foreign policy toward CAR). According to Russian Sinologists, China understands that the Central Asian region is an important zone of Russian interests, Therefore, will lead the policy taking into account of these interests, but Russia must not calm down and must strive to further strengthening its of positions in Central Asia. Works of Russian scientists make substantial assistance to the country in this matter, containing the recommendations to improve the efficiency of Russia's foreign policy in relation to the region.
In order to conduct a comparative description of Russian Researches of the 1990s and 2000s, devoted to the relations of China and Central Asia, we have made an analysis of articles on this topic from 1992 to 2011, published in the journal «Problems of the Far East.» This periodical is a scientific and socio-political journal, IFE, RAS, and among specialists-orientalist deserves a reputation as an authoritative edition. From 1992 to 1998 on the of journal only 1 article was published on the considered problem. . In 1998 K.Khafizova's article was published by dedicated to the Kazakh-Chinese relations, but the author is not a Russian scientists . From 2000 to 2011 14 articles were published . This imbalance is understandable: Russia due to its internal problems in the 90s was more interested in its future. That Russian authority, as analysts say, didn't develop a strategy to consolidate Russia position of in Central Asia. Relationships were reduced «to the response to the challenges and threats requiring immediate response» .
One of the major states of Central Asia is Kazakhstan. Issues of relations between Kazakhstan and neighboring countries, especially actualized after independence. The policy elite of Kazakhstan is aware of the necessity to strengthen the relations with the neighboring states that will be based on mutual respect, nonintervention into internal affairs of each other, extension of mutually beneficial cooperation in the sphere of politics, economics and culture. The Constitution of the country says: «The Republic of Kazakhstan respects the principal and norms of international law, carries on a policy of cooperation and good-neighborly relations between the states, their equality and non-intervention into internal affairs of each other, pacific settlement of international disputes, renounces the used of armed forces» . Kazakhstan is making great efforts to strengthen good-neighborly relations with Russia. It is also one of the priorities of Kazakhstan's foreign policy is the development of bilateral good-neighborly relations with the People's Republic of China. China, in its turn, seeks to strengthen ties not only with the major powers, but also from neighboring states. The policy of friendly relations with the countries of the world has been identified in the Constitution of the PRC:
«China consistently pursues an independent foreign policy and adheres to the five principles — mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual nonaggression, noninterference in internal affairs of each other, equality and mutual benefit, peaceful co-existence — in the development of diplomatic relations, economic and cultural exchanges with other countries…» . Up to the second half of 90-ies of the XX century, priority was given to bilateral agreements, but after enabling the world's terrorist organizations, China has become more attentive on multilateral cooperation. The result of such position was the entering of China in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which provided an opportunity for China to establish a special mechanism of the relationship between Central Asia and China, and allowed to enter into the sphere of politics, economics and security of the Central Asian region.
For an objective analysis of the Sino-Kazakh relations it is necessary to draw attention to the so-called «another view». That view may be the opinion of Russian scientists. It has been almost 20 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) (January 3, 1992). During this period, a certain scientific material has accumulated to analyze the past stage, summarize the results of cooperation between the two neighbors, as a strategic partner of Russia. This history itself tied the fate of Russia and Kazakhstan. Therefore, interest from Russian scientists to the Sino-Kazakh relations is not only an academic, geopolitical, geostrategic in nature, but is a purely human interest. In our view, many works of Russian authors were written from such positions. The more valuable the information their contained in the Russian history and political science literature. They, in turn, served as the analytical material for this article. Regional interests of China are directly related to Kazakhstan, and some of them, for example are, interests in energy resources or a problem Xinjiang, mostly related to the Sino-Kazakh relations. In recent years dissertation researches, have been protected, one of which is the work of Savkovich «China in foreign policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 1992–2001» (Tomsk, 2005). Till 2005, in his opinion, many authors have tended to the fact that in reality there are the Russian-Kazakh and Russian-Chinese strategic partnerships in the region. «Addition of a third party as a triangle of China-RussiaKazakhstan strategic partnership between China and Kazakhstan is considered, but is estimated by experts as unlikely in the short term, and there is only partial, and in multilateral agreements (SCO)» . V.Savkovich agrees with those scholars opinion who believe that the key aspects of consideration of mutually beneficial cooperation between the PRC and the RK are the fuel and energy projects and projects associated with the use of water resources . Views of Russian scientists on the methods of China goodneighborly policy towards Kazakhstan with «soft power» (investment in the economy, and active participation in regional organizations — the SCO, CICA, etc.) curious are. «In order to gain access to energy resources in the region, Beijing is increasingly using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) for «soft political enveloping» of separated countries of Central Asia. Beijing uses a conservative economic structure of the Central Asian countries to promote their care, especially in the materials, less ready to modernization, sectors of their economics. Thus, China ensures its future role as a regional source of new technologies and innovations» .
What do Russian researchers believe of about prospects of Sino-Kazakh relations? The authors, predict the preservation of the status of Kazakhstan's raw materials appendage of the Chinese economy (fuel and energy sector — production of hydrocarbons and uranium, the development of Kazakh fields of ferrous and nonferrous metals, etc.) Here, for example, one view: «In general, the emerging format of «cooperation» while only leads to the consolidation of the republic as a «mere supplier of raw materials» of the Chinese economy, slightly encouraging the development of innovation and manufacturing sectors of Kazakhstan's industry. As a result, the nature of the economic presence of China in Kazakhstan seems to be very multivalued in terms of this long-term interests of Kazakhstan. On the one hand, the Chinese finances help Kazakh economy to «stay afloat» (especially during the global crisis). On the other hand, Kazakhstan runs the risk of gradually get into a very tight dependence on China, including financial one, having extremely lost the control over their natural resources and strategic industries» . But the prospects of and other plan investment of China in Kazakhstan's economy are reviewed — the production of building materials, creation of new electricity generation capacity and the formation of appropriate transport infrastructure, cooperation in the fields of industry, agriculture, biotechnology, communications and space exploration. Also, cooperation in science and education . Of course, speaking about the prospects of China-Kazakhstan relations, the authors paid attention on the possible difficulties that may arise between the partners. In the economic sphere, among them are marked: the traditional focus of the northern regions of Kazakhstan on the Russian economy, where a large number of ethnic Russians live, the presence and interests of major Western corporations in Kazakhstan, «injections» of which the Kazakh energy sector is better than China's Apparently, the interest of Astana in the large-scale Western investments framework the economic influence of China in the RK . In addition, Kazakhstan still can not get to the domestic Chinese market, with other doods than raw materials. So really now, RK relating to China still retains the status of supplier of raw materials to China and the buyer of its consumer products. This status will lead to inhibition of the country's industrial development . The demographic situation in contemporary China in the future, according to Russian authors, may affect the China-Kazakhstan relations. For example, Ye. Sadowskaya considers that «the disproportion in population growth of China and Kazakhstan is a serious demographic pressure of China .
In general, Russian scientists notice that at the initial stage of economic cooperation between China and RK affect mostly commercial area. The situation changed in the second half of the 90s of XX century, when the relationship began to go to the level of design and investment in RK. Since the beginning of the XXI century there were attempts to diversify the Chinese presence in Kazakhstan by the field of economic. Returning to the publications, it may be noted that there no journal articles, specially devoted to the SinoKazakh relations. These relationships are mainly considered in the framework of China-Central Asia. We can highlight the work «Kazakhstan: Regalia and Perspectives of independent development» (edited by E.M.Kozhokina, 1998), in which there is an article K.A. Kokareva dedicated to the Sino-Kazakh relations. An accurate analysis of the formation, development of bilateral relations between China and South Korea in 90s of the twentieth century is made. The author also made some predictions of future relations between the sosedyami .
Main conclusions of Russian scientists on relations between China and CAR, as well as between China and Kazakhstan include negative and positive moments. Totally conclusions show real picture of bilateral and multilateral relations between People's Republic of China and states of Central Asia:
- Modern China-Central Asia relations formed after the breakup of the Soviet Union are characterized as confidential, good-neighborly and friendly relations on the basis of five principles of peaceful existence;
- 90th years of XX century are the years of establishing diplomatic, political and economic relations between PRC and CAR, and also solving of boundary problems and completion of the process of establishment of trust relations;
- 2000 years are the years of active cooperation of CA countries and PRC in the sphere of oil, gas and transport communications;
- Interests of China in Central Asia Region are based on the matters of an arrangement of conducive conditions promoting continuation of self economic development of China and preserving stability in the region, gaining access to natural resources and also formation of transport corridor through region along the lines of Middle East and Europe;
- Central Asia takes one of the most important places in foreign policy of PRC;
- Central Asia is an important area in the system of national security of PRC;
- Cooperation in the sphere of security between PRC and states of CA effectively develops at bilateral and multilateral levels within United Nations Organization, Conference on Interaction and Confidencebuilding Measures in Asia, Shanghai Cooperation Organization;
- Positions of states of CA and PRC in relation to the matter of Taiwan are unified: government of PRC is a sole legal Government of China and Taiwan is an integral part of the territory of China;
- The basis for perspective development of mutually beneficial relations between PRC and states of CA is economic cooperation;
- Development of trade and economic cooperation is an essential ingredient of policy of PRC in relation to CA, i.e. China is for «enrichment of neighbors» (rich neighbor is calm neighbor);
- The principle of «soft power» is the most important diplomatic principle of PRC in relation to CAR;
- PRC and CA hold unified position in a lot of matters of principal of the world policy, primarily in matters of security and stability (fight against «three evils»);
- Promoted nowadays in PRC conception of establishing «harmonic world» gives a hope of maintenance of present good neighborly relations between China and CAR;
- China acknowledges special status of Russia in CAR;
- At the present stage China is not formidable opponent of Russian in CAR, but in the measurable future China will pretend, mainly by economic methods, to supersede Russia from region;
- China and Russia are strategic partners in the fight against active rise of interests on the part of USA and NATO in the territory of CA;
- The most perspective mechanism of co-partnership of RF and PRC in Central Asia is:
- mostly Shanghai Cooperation Organization;
- In future China will use Central Asia for securing itself in the status of regional leader;
- Position of the forces of international antiterrorist coalition under the head of USA in the territory of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan enters definite stress in relations between China and states of Central Asia;
- One of the problem affecting development of effective relations between PRC and CA is an absence of interstate integration in CAR;
- Insufficient tempo of cultural and humanitarian cooperation between PRC and states of CA;
- Widening of Chinese capital in gas sphere of Uzbekistan can influence a monopoly of Russia in the given economic sector;
- China is one of the major purchaser of Turkmenian gas;
- In the eyes of Tajikistan one of the methods to raise a level of their economics is delivery expansion of goods from China, since it leads to cost saving in the trade and manufacture of goods of almost any assignment;
- Market volume between China and Kazakhstan is one of the highest I the region of Central Asia;
- Co-partnership between China and Kazakhstan can be referred more strategic, than nonstrategic;
- The role of Kazakhstan in foreign policy of China is significant, as well as China is important for Kazakhstan as one of the partners within multiple vector policy;
- Priority sphere of bilateral relations could be joint efforts of PRC and RK in the range of security, from success of which depends cooperation in other areas;
- The results of cooperation suggest assignment of the role of «rawmaterial appendage» of Chinese economics for Kazakhstan;
- The status of Kazakhstan in the role of raw material supplier to PRC and market outlet of its consumer goods can be a factor contributing to slowdown of industrial development of the country;
- In future population growth rate of China can be «demographic imperialism» for Kazakhstan and all CA;
- Possibility of promotion of interests of China in Kazakhstan by military way is not excluded, in that case if military theory of China based on conception of «local war» and doctrine of «strategic borders and vital space» (SBVS) will be realized;
The increase of Chinese migration to Kazakhstan can lead to the increase of synophobia and demonstrations of ethnic The main conclusions of Russian scientists on the relationship of China and the CAR, as well as China and Kazakhstan include both negative and positive aspects. In general, the conclusions reflect a true picture of bilateral and multilateral relations of China and Central Asia. First of all, the scientists describe the modern relations between China and Central Asian region trustworthy, good-neighborly and friendly, based on five principles of peaceful coexistence. 90 years of the twentieth century — are years of diplomatic, political and economic relations between China and the CAR, as well as the elimination of border issues and the completion of the process of creating a trust relationship, 2000s — are years of active cooperation between the countries of Central Asia and China in the field of oil, gas, transportation, etc. Security cooperation between China and Central Asian states is effectively developing on the bilateral and multilateral levels — within the United Nations, Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
China's interests in Central Asia are based on the questions of creation of favorable conditions in it that contributing the continuation of China's own economic development and maintain stability in the region, access to natural resources, as well as in the formation of transport corridors through the region in the direction of the Middle East and Europe. The principle of «soft power» is the most important principle of China's diplomacy with regard to the CAR. China and Central Asia occupy a common position on many key issues of world politics, especially on security and stability (the fight against the «three evils»). At the present stage, China is not a strong rival of Russia in the CAR, but in the near future, China will try to exclude Russia from the region by mainly economic methods. For example, the expansion of Chinese capital in the gas sector of Uzbekistan can affect Russia's monopoly in this sector of the economy. But Tajikistan considers that an increase in the supply of goods from China is one of the ways to raise the level of the economy, as it will significantly reduce their costs in the sale and manufacture of goods of almost any purpose. Therefore, the Russian scientists are confident that the status of CA as a supplier of raw materials to China and a market for its consumer goods may be a factor contributing the deceleration of industrial development in the region. The growth rate of China's population in the future will threaten to turn into a «demographic imperialism» for the whole of Central Asia. We can not exclude that the increase in Chinese migration in the countries of Central Asia may lead to an increase in Sinophobia and manifestations of ethnic hatred.
The analysis of most of the Russian literature of the last 20 years on the issue of bilateral relations between China and Central Asian countries, makes it possible to conclude that the majority of works devoted to the relationship of China as a whole, with CAR and mostly only in the framework of Russian-Chinese cooperation. The works of the 2000s (compared with the works of the 1990s), more in terms of quantity, are varied in topics, and different in-depth analysis of problems.
In general, the opinion of the majority of Russian scientists is the fact that all Central Asian states recognize the necessity of further strengthening of mutually benefit relationships with China for the long term.
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