Modern trends in development of labor resources in the republic of Kazakhstan

The article considers a systematic approach to the level of competitiveness of labor resources, based on the results of regression analysis, including different factors. The author determines the strengths and weaknesses of each factor contributing the quality of labor forces. This approach had aimed at achieving a high level of competitive advantage in a certain segment of the human capital. This helped to achieve a high level of effectiveness of labor forces in the conditions of modern market situation.

Human resources have value if they are able to bring future income by providing their labor. Or, you might say, the cost of personnel, like any other resources, is the present value of the expected future services and revenues. The cost of a person for an organization also depends on the period during which he can provide his services to the organization and generate income, that is, the period of work in the organization. The expected return on investment in human capital includes a higher level of earnings, greater satisfaction from the chosen work during life, as well as a higher valuation of non-market activities.

The costs of producing human capital (to invest in human capital) include:

  • Direct costs, including tuition fees and other expenses for education, change of residence and work;
  • lost earnings, which is an element of opportunity costs, since education, change of residence and work are related to loss of income;
  • Moral damage, since education is a difficult and often unpleasant occupation, job search tires and depletes the nervous system, and migration leads to the loss of old friends and acquaintances.

One of the conditions for the successful functioning of companies is human capital, since many industries, first of all, are not only labor-intensive industries, but also branches with highly qualified personnel. So, for example, in most types of banking activities, customer satisfaction depends on increasing the level of qualification of bank staff, i. quality of labor resources of the bank [1, p. 62-63].

Human capital is understood as a person's knowledge, skills and abilities that contribute to the growth of his productive power. "Human capital - as most economists define it - consists of the acquired knowledge, skills, motivations and energy that human beings are endowed with and that can be used for a certain period of time for the production of goods and services" [1, p. 16] .

"He is a form of capital, because he is the source of future earnings, or future satisfaction, or both. He is a human being, because he is an integral part of man "[2, p. 16].

J.R. McCullosh clearly defined human beings as capital: "Instead of understanding capital as part of the output of industry, it seems there are no valid reasons why a person could not reckon with it" [3, p. 57 -67].

In addition, he notes the existence of a close analogy between conventional and human capital, believing that investing in human beings must have a rate of turnover that is consistent with the rate of turnover of other investments, plus the normal rate of turnover determined by the market interest rate during the individual's possible life [4, p. 66].

Nassau Senior suggested that human beings can be successfully treated as capital, with the costs of maintenance invested in a person with the expectation of obtaining benefits in the future [5, p. 10].

Henry D. McLeod considered the producing person as a fixed capital. From his point of view, if this person is not productive, then he is not subject to economic analysis [37, p. 134]. This view sharply contradicts the opinion of Leon Walras, who included all human beings in capital. And the value, or price, of these human beings, said Walras, is defined like other capital goods [6, p. 214-216].

Johann G. von T?nen also noted the reluctance of individual economists to evaluate human beings in money. But from this reluctance, he said, "there is a lack of clarity and confusion of concepts in one of the most important areas of political economy. Moreover, it may turn out that the freedom and dignity of people could be successfully secured if they were subjects of capital laws "[7, p. 5].

Capital, as Irving Fisher argued, is a "useful intended material object," and therefore, since human beings have this characteristic, consistency in reasoning requires their inclusion in the concept of capital [8, 9, 10].

Human capital, according to SS. Hubner, can have the same scientific interpretation as ordinary capital has. Its operational definition can be obtained by "capitalizing the value of human life by means of bonds, giving them lifelong rent (for a given workforce) and circulation (as a source of credit), considering them on a collateral basis and using the depreciation funds method to ensure the implementation of the object in question, if only a person has the prospect of future business activity, and his family - the obligation to cover the existing risk of uncertainty in the duration of human life "[11, p. 18-19].

In the theory of general equilibrium with postulated short-term contracts, entrepreneurs are not interested in investing in labor. But recently, the factors of longterm growth are widely recognized as dominant in regulating business activity. As some Western economists have noted, entrepreneurs are increasingly aware of the importance of investment, which becomes an "integrated part of a person", and this awareness leads to the liberation of investment growth in human beings [12, p. 9].

Woods and Metzger have shown that symmetry in treating both human and ordinary capital is achieved only if the categories of "depreciation", "conservation" and "disposal" are used. The conservation costs are taken into account when the consumption costs are deducted from the earnings and the depreciation with retirement is taken into account in the way in which the average earnings are estimated: "This factor (depreciation and retirement) is introduced into the calculation of the average annual salary of workers that includes the low wages of the old workers along with a high salary of more efficient producers. The former, naturally, receive lower salaries and wages than healthy and productive workers in the first half of their lives, but the earnings of the latter are diluted in the "average" by the lower wages of the first group and those very young workers who do not yet have qualifications "[13, p. 122].

Productive qualities and characteristics of the employee were recognized as a special form of capital on the grounds that their development requires considerable time and material resources and that they, like physical capital, provide their owner with a higher income: "In recent decades, the idea that capital consists of some physical assets, has been undermined. In its place, a more comprehensive view has gradually been established, according to which capital is any asset - physical or human, capable of generating a stream of future incomes "[14, p. 5].

Many economists pointed to the need for and the possibility of an economic assessment of the workforce, and also talked about the use of these estimates for specific purposes.

Thus, it can be concluded that human capital is a set of investments in the training, ability and future of a person, embodied in a person's reserve of abilities, knowledge, skills, and motivations. This capital can be divided into special and general. Under the common human capital understand the whole body of knowledge and skills received by a person in the process of training and work and paid for at his own expense. They are of value to the person in his work in any company. Special capital is knowledge and skills received by a person in the process of work in a particular organization, paid for by the organization and representing value only for theorganization.The profitability of human capital is calculated by referring income from it to its value. This indicator was called the "rate of return". The rate of return, according to economists - neoclassicists, performs the same functions that, in relation to physical capital, fulfill the rate of profit, namely, it measures the degree of effectiveness of human investments and realizes their distribution. Also, human capital is determined by the totality of human qualities that affect the results of its activities and the corresponding revenues. In particular, the theory of human capital makes it possible to assess the appropriateness of the costs of training, depending on the anticipated increase in incomes and the duration of use of the acquired knowledge. [15, p.12] Human capital is viewed as a set of qualities that determine productivity and can become sources of income for the individual, the family of the enterprise and society.

The issue, which is practically not paid attention in the domestic practice of human resources management, but is no less important in the learning process, is control over the effectiveness of training.

The following indicators can serve as general criteria for the effectiveness of the process of improving the qualification of human resources, from our point of view:

  • Densities and rates of growth in the number of human resources that do not have a basic profile education;
  • dynamics of the number of human resources, having a higher profile education;
  • o the dynamics of the number of human resources (differentiated depending on the position held), during the last five years of continuing professional development in any form;
  • dependence of material incentives on learning outcomes.

Intensification of management and improvement of the quality of labor of personnel are possible only as a result of applying fundamentally new approaches to working with human resources. Human resources management requires an integrated approach, which includes the development of the corporate culture of the organization, the use of different forms of planning and control, increasing the transparency of management decisions, and improving the professional skills of staff. [16, p. 39-42]

The integrated assessment will allow to form a qualitatively new mechanism for monitoring the work of human resources and will contribute to the formation of more focused work with human resources, and ultimately the effective operation of the entire organization. [17, p. 52-56]

To date, it has become evident that the quality of human resources, as well as the labor resources of the region, should be considered in the context of the concept of its sustainable development, i.e. its social subsystem.

To predict the social stability of the Karaganda region, we built a multiple regression model.

In the process of estimating the parameters of simultaneous equations, both endogenous and exogenous variables were used. Endogenous variables are considered, the values of which are determined inside the model. These are dependent variables, the number of which is equal to the number of equations of the system. Exogenous variables are considered whose values are determined outside the model. These are given variables that affect the endogenous variables, but do not depend on them.

As a result, the total population of the region (Pop) was chosen. To select the factors that have the greatest impact on the result, we considered the variables:

UP - unemployed population, thousand people;

ANS - average monthly nominal wage, tenge; MG - migration increase, thousand people; PG - natural increase in population, people;

NUS - number of students in universities, people;

HB - number of hospital beds;

CPO - the number of permanent preschool organizations.

The source was the statistical data of the Department of Statistics of the Karaganda region.

Next, a correlation analysis is made and the correlation coefficients are calculated to select the factors that have the greatest correlation dependence with the resulting index-the total population. The results of estimating the correlation relationship are presented by the correlation matrix (Table 1).

 

Pop

UP

ANS

MG

PG

NUS

HB

CPO

Pop

1

             

UP

-0,23

1

           

ANS

-0,58

-0,28

1

         

MG

-0,71

-0,29

0,63

1

       

PG

0,39

-0,84

0,40

0,14

1

     

NUS

-0,74

-0,18

0,25

0,70

-0,22

1

   

HB

0,92

-0,37

-0,60

-0,60

0,40

-0,49

1

 

CPO

0,78

-0,59

-0,02

-0,35

0,78

-0,56

0,76

1

Note - calculated by the author

Table 1- Results of correlation correlation estimation

Judging by the correlation coefficients, all the factors considered, except for the number of the unemployed population (r = -0.23), have a close correlation with the resulting sign. Based on the above, we did not include the mentioned factor in the model. With the remaining factors, regression analysis was performed and the leastsquares coefficients of the equation were estimated. As a result, a multiple regression equation was obtained:

Pop = 1536,8 — 0,00197jrS -OfOOOlSAfG + 0,0066PG - 0,0033/VÍ/S + 0,0029ŕfổ÷ 0,148CPƠ, Я2 = 0,99.

The regression equation is statistically significant, since the observed value of the Fisher criterion is significantly higher than its critical value at a significance level of 0.05 (F_abset = 429.3> F_crit = 2.69), hence the model adequately describes the interrelation between the variables and can be used for further analysis and forecast. To obtain predictive estimates of social sustainability in the future, we have identified trends in the development of indicators included in the model. Trends of the change and the forecast obtained by the trend models for the next three years are presented in Table 2.

Table 2 - Forecast values of targeted indicators for sustainable development of the region

Factors of social sustainability

Trend model

Forecast of the target indicator

2018

2019

2020

Average monthly nominal wage, tenge

ANS = 274,85tz - 2503,7t +

8971,1

R2 = 0,99

118160

129674

141737

Migration growth, thousand people

MG = 10868ln(t) - 38578

R2 = 0,39

-3595

-3169

-2759

Natural increase in population, people

PG = 100,031 - 2423,4t + 14993

R2 = 0,84

16927

19605

22483

Number of students in universities, people

NUS = -157,1t2 + 4905,1t +

22054

R2 = 0,56

46492

43384

39963

Number of hospital beds, units

HB = 24690e-0,04t

R2 = 0,65

9083

8727

8385

Number of permanent preschool organizations, units

CPO = 11,164ln(t) + 487,63 R2 = 0,97

506

508

509

Note - calculated by the author

Using the obtained predictive estimates of social stability factors, we obtained a forecast of the total population of the Karaganda region in 2018-2020:

Pop2018=1364,7 thousand of people; Pop2019=1369,0 thousand of people; Pop2020=1374,6 thousand of people.

Compared to 2017, in 2018, we can expect a decrease in the total population of the Karaganda region, which is caused by a significant outflow of population from the region. In subsequent years, the trend again has a positive trend.

Thus, these factors are should be taken into account in the process of making and implementing the state policy on labor forces development.

 

List of used literature:

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Year: 2018
City: Karaganda
Category: Economy