This article discusses the history of the formation and functioning of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Mechanisms of formation, management and use of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Fund specified function within the framework of its main objectives in modern conditions.
Further development of the state as part of the Strategic Development Plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2020, aimed at preparing for the post-crisis development, sustainable economic growth by accelerating diversification through industrialization and increasing the competitiveness of human capital.
Creation at the beginning of the last decade, the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan was one of the breakthrough macroeconomic initiatives of Kazakhstan. This is clearly evidenced by its leading role in stabilizing the economic situation in the country during the first phase (2007-2010 years) the global economic crisis.
Since 2001, the volume of accumulated funds in it increased almost 90-fold in dollar terms (excluding inflation). Due to the favorable situation in the global commodity markets last year alone its assets increased by 32.41% to 57.77 billion. Dollars. This is more than 27.5% of the country's GDP. In comparison, net international currency reserves of the National Bank of Kazakhstan during the same time period decreased due to a number of reasons 3.5% - up to 27.75 billion US dollars.
However, in addition to long-term accumulation of functions and makroe-conomic stabilization strategy for the development of the National Fund of Kazakhstan is still focused primarily on the monetarist model of monetary policy within the framework of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. It implies achievement through massive financial "pump" the Fund with respect to short-term macroeconomic objectives, such as the regulation of the rate of inflation and the removal of excessive money supply scenario for leveling "Dutch disease". This so-called "sterilization" function of the National Fund of Kazakhstan.
It must be recognized that this approach is relevant primarily to developed countries with a high rate of domestic savings, monetary inflation risks for which play a primary role.
Such a model does not take into account the status of the developing economy of Kazakhstan. Its specificity - the lack of domestic financial resources, increased need of liquidity and large-scale investment in the further development and diversification of the real economy. And it is only through "Samruk-Kazyna" made or planned to implement 157 investment projects worth about 101 billion US dollars.
Thus, under implementation in the country a number of macroeconomic talozatratnyh kapi-national programs, low monetization of the economy and the high cost of funds on the market friction VNU-Fund does not perform the function of development. Long-term objectives, figuratively speaking, are sacrificed to short-term.
Fixed assets of the Fund invested in the currency and debt assets beyond national jurisdiction. At the same time, is not carried out a comprehensive assessment of long-term negative consequences for the national economy unlimited withdrawals of funds to the National Fund of Kazakhstan, including in terms of latent capital outflows from the country by investing in the Fund's foreign debt and foreign currency assets.
In this situation, the implementation of economic policy in general and large-scale projects such as Kazakhstan due to the low level of liquid capital available to domestic business, forced to "compensate" withdrawn from the internal "turnover" funding through the active involvement of foreign investments and borrowed funds, which are not always take into account the long-term challenges facing the country.
This enhances the volatility of the national financial system, increases the dependence of economic development on foreign markets and commercial conditions set by foreign investors and creditors. In addition, the orientation of external credit resources contributes to a further deterioration in the balance of payments, based on the long term.
In particular, from January 2003 to September 2012, according to the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan's gross external debt increased from 18.25 billion US dollars to 134.88 billion US dollars, respectively. Thus, the gross external debt amounted to 67.3% of GDP. In addition, the net inflow of foreign direct and portfolio investments in Kazakhstan amounted to September 2012 22.41 billion US dollars (gross inflows - 177.72 billion US dollars, the gross outflow - 155.31 billion US dollars).
As of September 2014 in the structure of external debt to the state sector, public administration accounts for only 4.55 billion US dollars, banking and financial institutions - 14.03 billion US dollars. The rest (US $ 115.74 billion) - debt obligations of enterprises and organizations of the real sector of the economy. Similar amounts of external debt demonstrate the actual level of the national economy in free capital, including for working capital and large local companies to implement strategic projects.
Aggregate payments to repay and service gross external debt only in 2013 will amount to 15.18 billion US dollars (including interest payments - 4.47 billion US dollars) in 2014 - 11.14 billion US dollars (3.93 billion USD respectively). Moreover, the involvement of the real sector of the economy commercial loan capital from abroad and funding business is carried out at much higher rates than the return on investment of funds of the National Fund of Kazakhstan (1.37% - up to 2011).
In this context, Kazakhstan is a multibillion-dollar losses. Against this background, over the last decade due to various reasons, there were considerable delays in the implementation of a number of strategic projects at the national level (including the highly profitable), mainstreaming of foreign investment or external borrowing due to lack of internal investment resources and sufficient sources of refinancing at low rates.
Among these projects include the construction of Atyrau MCC, modernization of all three refineries, expansion and reconstruction Ekiba-stuzskih GRES-1 and GRES-2, the construction of the Balkhash thermal power plant, and so on. In the case of increasing the use of public funds for a return on their implementation could be potentially performed in a much shorter time frame, which would have a multiplier effect of macroeconomic and social.
Given the status of the developing economy of Kazakhstan and a number of other factors influence the degree of actual sterilization function of the National Fund of Kazakhstan on the economic situation in the country, and especially the slowdown of inflation in the long run, it is ambiguous and revalued.
During the years 2001-12 the average inflation rate, despite the massive influx of foreign investment and "expensive" loans stood at 8.2% (in the stable corridor of 6% to 9.5%, with the exception of 2007 - 18.8% on an annualized basis). And at the end of last year, inflation fell to its lowest level - 6%. These figures are not comparable with the rate of growth of the money supply in the country - so M2 together for the same period increased 31.4-fold (from 271.85 billion tenge at the beginning of 2001 to 8,5 billion tenge end of last year). By "acceleration" of inflation failed and infusion of large investment by the state in the strategic development programs, anti-crisis measures and initiatives to support the business, implemented in recent years.
Thus, the implementation of reservation policy of public funds does not fully take into account that inflation in Kazakhstan largely depends on monetary factors. In conditions of low level of monetization of the economy the current level of inflation mainly driven by external factors (due to the high dependence on imports), as well as a consequence of monopoly pricing, regular indexation of wages, pensions and social benefits, a number of other systemic causes.
It can be concluded that without further enhance the development of national economy, on the case of direct state support and without constant stimulation of domestic demand growth rate of inflation can not be reduced to the levels of the leading European economies and the US. Artificially low inflation as a priority of government economic policy will continue to provide long-term negative effect on the economy.
Fund invested in "highly" international positions. In addition, according to official information from 1,088 bln., Allocated for the implementation of anti-crisis measures, returned only 331 billion tenge. However, this result was largely expected, as a significant part of them was sent to the illiquid assets unprofitable (BTA etc.).
On a similar background of significant concern is the lack of profitability and efficiency of investment placement of the National Fund of Kazakhstan in conservative assets.
In particular, according to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the average annual yield of up-National Fund since its establishment by mid-2012 was about 4.51% in the base currency (US dollars), with total investment income - about $ 6.2 billion USA. The annual rate of return in recent years tends to a gradual decline (in 2011, according to the Audit custodian bank BNY Mellon, - 1,37%, and the yield stabilization portfolio - only 0.273%), and in 2008 was recorded at all its a negative value (-2.8%). For comparison, the official dollar average inflation for the period from 2000 to 2011 stood at 2.54%, thereby positioning the real average annual yield of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan at the level of less than 2% per year.
We have to admit that this is typical of most sovereign wealth funds represented in the global market, giving priority to invest in highly liquid international assets, such as a basket of major world currencies and debt obligations of countries with high credit ratings. For example, the average annual yield of the Reserve Fund of Russia (since its inception in January 2008 through the end of December 2012) is 2.28%, the Government Pension Fund of Norway (from January 1998 to December 2011) - 4.5%, and so on. d.
Mainly produced investment income of the National Fund of Kazakhstan is still determined not an effective strategy of conservative investments, and favorable currency exchange rate difference on the international market (investment held in more than 10 major currencies).
A number of categories of foreign currency (including euros), which is embedded in the bulk of the resources of the Fund remains at risk due to both conservation crisis trends in the world economy and actions of national governments / supranational bodies on their hidden devaluation. In addition, with respect to sub-portfolio of the Fund, which includes bonds and securities of the euro area are also significant concerns about the long-term "sustainability" and the profitability of a number of European debt.
For example, this applies not only to sovereign bonds of Spain and Italy, but also France, which in the foreseeable future could face serious debt and macroeconomic issues that are critical for the euro area. Insufficient consideration of possible risks in the management of the Fund in a position to have a major impact on investment returns and safety of investments in the currency and debt market.
A new look at the activities of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan
In 2011, the Government of Kazakhstan officially stressed the need to review the priorities of the National Fund, contained in the current concept of formation and use of the National Fund of 2010 in order to better reflect the long-term objectives and enhance the sustainability of economic development of Kazakhstan, as well as improve the overall profitability through diversifying the investment portfolio. It is worth noting that the current concept provides increased savings just focus Fund under the vague interpretations - "redistribution of savings between the generations."
Despite the instructions of the Republic of Kazakhstan, has not yet been completed to determine the parameters and conditions of use of the National Fund of Kazakhstan, including valuation models risky investments, targeting the maximum permissible levels of domestic investment fund and identify priority instruments of their investments.
To date, it is mainly about reusing returned to the National Fund of Kazakhstan means anti-crisis program, as well as through the allocation of "Samruk-Kazyna" bond issue of JSC "NC" KazMunaiGas "in the amount of US $ 4 billion in two tranches in 2013 and 2015. In addition, part of the funds on-tional fund is used to solve a wide range of national objectives in the framework of the annual guaranteed transfer to the national budget of $ 8-9,3 billion.
However, the above steps are not structured in the longer term, the nature and appears to be insufficient to achieve effective macroeconomic outcomes. For example, the annual guaranteed transfer is carried out solely in order to stabilize the national budget, as a function of macroeconomic stimulus is carried out only indirectly (in this case the mechanism of its distribution and use is completely opaque).
In this context, it is important to carry out in the shortest possible time frame partial reorientation of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the longterm goals of national development.
Despite a number of potential risks, including those associated with the growth opportunities of corruption and misuse of the Fund, it will significantly enhance the ability of the state to conduct a balanced policy development and diversification of the real economy, and in the future - to increase the revenue side of the budget, improve the quality of life Kazakhs, etc. A strengthening of inflationary pressures (in the range of 0.5-1.5 percentage points per year) should be considered as potentially acceptable in the investigation of the policy on the use of the National Fund for the needs of national development.
First of all, it is advisable to structurally divide the National Fund of Kazakhstan with regard to the principles of Santiago on the Stabilization Fund (Fund for Future Generations) and Development Fund, each of which will focus on their own models of investment and saving state financial assets.
Stabilization fund intended to continue to carry out current savings and partly - the sterilization function of the National Fund of Kazakhstan using conservative model of investing in highly diversified portfolios of international debt and currency instruments.
In the structure of powers of the Stabilization Fund is advisable to consolidate the implementation of the guaranteed transfer to the national budget. However, it is necessary to consider the possibility of partial transfer to the Stabilization Fund of undeveloped for the fiscal year of the national budget.
In the Stabilization Fund will be a priority directed the bulk of the reserve savings coming from the oil windfall.
It is worth noting that the extra "cushion" long-term financial security for the country's gold reserves are the National Bank of Kazakhstan, is also engaged in a savings feature. At the same time, the National Bank of Kazakhstan in the foreseeable future should play a more significant role in the implementation of the sterilization function, which is currently carried out by the National Fund of Kazakhstan.
In the framework of the Development Fund should form the investment priorities in national assets (including stock market) in order to promote economic development and strengthen the real economy on the basis of a diversified approach, as well as WIDE foreign assets.
Asset management Development Fund is advisable to leave for JSC "National Investment Corporation of National Bank of Kazakhstan", created in autumn 2012.
As a model of the fund can be used developments, approved by the French sovereign fund Fonds Strategique Investissement, China Investment Corporation CIC, Brazilian sovereign fund Fundo Soberano do Brasil and other.
It seems desirable to introduce the "anchor" marginal rate of accumulation of funds in the Development Fund to the ceiling of 7% to 10% of GDP in dollar terms (corresponding to the current level of 14,5-20,5 billion US dollars), which is a sufficient level of redundancy in terms of the long term. Such a restriction is due to the need to eliminate the scenario of excessive inflow of funds into the economy of Kazakhstan, does not ensure sufficient asset base.